Hilton Food Group (LSE:HFG) - Share price, News & Analysis

HFG fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	2/6
Future Growth	3/6
Past Performance	2/6
Financial Health	4/6
Dividends	4/6

HFG Stock Overview

Hilton Food Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the food packing business.

Rewards

Trading at 67.6% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 16.13% per year

Risk Analysis

Dividend of 2.81% is not well covered by earnings

Significant insider selling over the past 3 months

Shareholders have been diluted in the past year

Hilton Food Group Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Hilton Food Group
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	UK£10.56
52 Week High	UK£12.57
52 Week Low	UK£9.88
Beta	0.23
1 Month Change	-6.71%
3 Month Change	-13.58%
1 Year Change	-2.94%
3 Year Change	9.09%
5 Year Change	43.09%
Change since IPO	521.18%

Recent News & Updates

May 26

Hilton Food Group (LON:HFG) Has Announced That It Will Be Increasing Its Dividend To UK£0.21

The board of Hilton Food Group plc ( LON:HFG ) has announced that it will be increasing its dividend on the 1st of July...

May 12

Hilton Food Group (LON:HFG) Is Paying Out A Larger Dividend Than Last Year

The board of Hilton Food Group plc ( LON:HFG ) has announced that it will be increasing its dividend on the 1st of July...

Shareholder Returns

	HFG	GB Food	GB Market
7D	1.7%	1.8%	2.3%
1Y	-2.9%	-22.7%	-8.6%

Return vs Industry: HFG exceeded the UK Food industry which returned -22.7% over the past year.

Return vs Market: HFG exceeded the UK Market which returned -8.6% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is HFG's price volatile compared to industry and market?
HFG volatility
HFG Average Weekly Movement	3.4%
Food Industry Average Movement	4.5%
Market Average Movement	5.5%
10% most volatile stocks in GB Market	10.8%
10% least volatile stocks in GB Market	2.8%

Stable Share Price: HFG is less volatile than 75% of UK stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 3% a week.

Volatility Over Time: HFG's weekly volatility (3%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1994	5,781	Philip Heffer	https://www.hiltonfoodgroupplc.com

Hilton Food Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the food packing business. The company offers a range of fresh items, such as roasting joints, steaks, chops, and minces. It also provides value-added products comprising barbecue ranges, marinated meats, meat cuts, serving sauces, and ready to cook products.

Hilton Food Group Fundamentals Summary

How do Hilton Food Group's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
HFG fundamental statistics
Market Cap	UK£941.05m
Earnings (TTM)	UK£37.14m
Revenue (TTM)	UK£3.30b

25.3x

P/E Ratio

0.3x

P/S Ratio

Is HFG overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
HFG income statement (TTM)
Revenue	UK£3.30b
Cost of Revenue	UK£2.94b
Gross Profit	UK£366.08m
Other Expenses	UK£328.94m
Earnings	UK£37.14m

Last Reported Earnings

Jan 02, 2022

Next Earnings Date

Sep 15, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)	0.42
Gross Margin	11.09%
Net Profit Margin	1.12%
Debt/Equity Ratio	73.0%

How did HFG perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

2.8%

Current Dividend Yield

66%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is HFG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HFG?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for HFG. This is calculated by dividing HFG's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is HFG's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	UK£941.05m

HFG key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.4x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	11x
PEG Ratio	1.6x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does HFG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

HFG PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for HFG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	17.3x

Forward PE

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: HFG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.3x) compared to the peer average (17.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does HFG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the U.K. Food Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: HFG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.3x) compared to the UK Food industry average (15.9x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HFG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HFG PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	25.3x
Fair PE Ratio	17.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: HFG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.3x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HFG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: HFG (£10.56) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£32.56)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HFG is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: HFG is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (1.6x)

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Future Growth

How is Hilton Food Group forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 9 analysts?

Future Growth Score

3/6

Future Growth Score 3/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

16.1%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: HFG's forecast earnings growth (16.1% per year) is above the savings rate (0.9%).

Earnings vs Market: HFG's earnings (16.1% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the UK market (10.9% per year).

High Growth Earnings: HFG's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: HFG's revenue (5.9% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the UK market (4.1% per year).

High Growth Revenue: HFG's revenue (5.9% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: HFG's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (17.8%).

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Past Performance

How has Hilton Food Group performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

2/6

Past Performance Score 2/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

10.1%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: HFG has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: HFG's current net profit margins (1.1%) are lower than last year (1.4%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: HFG's earnings have grown by 10.1% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: HFG's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: HFG had negative earnings growth (-6.5%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Food industry average (34.6%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: HFG's Return on Equity (12.8%) is considered low.

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Financial Health

How is Hilton Food Group's financial position?

Financial Health Score

4/6

Financial Health Score 4/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: HFG's short term assets (£533.4M) do not cover its short term liabilities (£626.4M).

Long Term Liabilities: HFG's short term assets (£533.4M) exceed its long term liabilities (£233.1M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: HFG's net debt to equity ratio (27.5%) is considered satisfactory.

Reducing Debt: HFG's debt to equity ratio has increased from 25.8% to 73% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: HFG's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (38.3%).

Interest Coverage: HFG's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (4.6x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Hilton Food Group current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

5/6

Dividend Score 5/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

2.81%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: HFG's dividend (2.81%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the UK market (1.88%).

High Dividend: HFG's dividend (2.81%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the UK market (5.18%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: HFG's dividends per share have been stable in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: HFG's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonable payout ratio (65.9%), HFG's dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its high cash payout ratio (92.4%), HFG's dividend payments are not well covered by cash flows.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

3.0yrs

Average board tenure

CEO

Philip Heffer

3.92yrs

Tenure

UK£1,686,000

Compensation

Mr. Philip Heffer has been Chief Executive Officer of Hilton Food Group PLC since July 01, 2018. Mr. Heffer served as the Chief Operating Officer of Hilton Food Group PLC from April 22, 2016 to July 01, 20...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Philip's total compensation ($USD2.07M) is above average for companies of similar size in the UK market ($USD1.35M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Philip's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.

Board Members

Experienced Board: HFG's board of directors are considered experienced (3 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: HFG insiders have sold more shares than they have bought in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 8.7%.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/06/25 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/06/24 00:00
Earnings	2022/01/02
Annual Earnings	2022/01/02