Hilton Food Group plc

LSE:HFG Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£801.0m

Hilton Food Group Valuation

Is HFG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HFG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: HFG (£8.93) is trading above our estimate of fair value (£4.53)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HFG is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HFG?

Key metric: As HFG is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for HFG. This is calculated by dividing HFG's market cap by their current earnings.
What is HFG's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio17.3x
EarningsUK£46.43m
Market CapUK£801.04m

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does HFG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for HFG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average12.4x
BAKK Bakkavor Group
13x11.2%UK£832.8m
GNC Greencore Group
18.4x9.4%UK£849.8m
MHPC MHP
3.7xn/aUS$552.3m
PFD Premier Foods
14.7x6.5%UK£1.6b
HFG Hilton Food Group
17.3x9.7%UK£801.0m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: HFG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.3x) compared to the peer average (12.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does HFG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Food Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
HFG 17.3xIndustry Avg. 13.7xNo. of Companies19PE01020304050+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: HFG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.3x) compared to the European Food industry average (13.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HFG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HFG PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio17.3x
Fair PE Ratio16.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: HFG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst HFG forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£8.93
UK£10.81
+21.1%
6.8%UK£12.00UK£9.55n/a7
Dec ’25UK£9.06
UK£10.81
+19.4%
6.8%UK£12.00UK£9.55n/a7
Nov ’25UK£9.25
UK£10.80
+16.8%
7.3%UK£12.00UK£9.55n/a6
Oct ’25UK£9.02
UK£10.68
+18.4%
7.0%UK£12.00UK£9.55n/a6
Sep ’25UK£9.85
UK£10.53
+6.9%
7.5%UK£12.00UK£9.55n/a6
Aug ’25UK£9.29
UK£10.53
+13.4%
7.5%UK£12.00UK£9.55n/a6
Jul ’25UK£9.06
UK£10.53
+16.3%
7.5%UK£12.00UK£9.55n/a6
Jun ’25UK£8.94
UK£10.53
+17.8%
7.5%UK£12.00UK£9.55n/a6
May ’25UK£9.25
UK£10.23
+10.5%
12.8%UK£12.00UK£7.70n/a6
Apr ’25UK£8.43
UK£9.33
+10.6%
16.5%UK£11.50UK£7.00n/a6
Mar ’25UK£8.14
UK£9.16
+12.5%
16.5%UK£11.50UK£7.00n/a6
Feb ’25UK£7.72
UK£9.16
+18.6%
16.5%UK£11.50UK£7.00n/a6
Jan ’25UK£8.00
UK£9.06
+13.2%
15.3%UK£11.00UK£7.00n/a6
Dec ’24UK£7.24
UK£8.91
+23.0%
14.9%UK£11.00UK£7.00UK£9.067
Nov ’24UK£6.67
UK£8.91
+33.5%
14.9%UK£11.00UK£7.00UK£9.257
Oct ’24UK£7.17
UK£8.84
+23.2%
13.9%UK£10.50UK£7.00UK£9.027
Sep ’24UK£6.81
UK£8.77
+28.8%
15.2%UK£10.50UK£7.00UK£9.856
Aug ’24UK£6.47
UK£9.05
+39.9%
14.2%UK£10.50UK£7.00UK£9.295
Jul ’24UK£6.24
UK£8.67
+38.9%
16.8%UK£10.50UK£6.76UK£9.066
Jun ’24UK£6.85
UK£8.25
+20.5%
20.5%UK£10.50UK£5.75UK£8.947
May ’24UK£6.78
UK£7.78
+14.8%
17.4%UK£10.30UK£5.75UK£9.257
Apr ’24UK£6.92
UK£7.47
+7.9%
19.1%UK£10.30UK£5.75UK£8.437
Mar ’24UK£7.18
UK£7.52
+4.8%
17.9%UK£10.30UK£5.75UK£8.148
Feb ’24UK£6.65
UK£7.52
+13.1%
17.9%UK£10.30UK£5.75UK£7.728
Jan ’24UK£5.57
UK£7.52
+35.0%
17.9%UK£10.30UK£5.75UK£8.008
Dec ’23UK£5.35
UK£7.52
+40.6%
17.9%UK£10.30UK£5.75UK£7.248

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/30 04:26
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/30 00:00
Earnings2024/06/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Hilton Food Group plc is covered by 12 analysts. 8 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Joseph BarronBerenberg
Samuel HartHiddensee Research Ltd
Max ChurchHSBC