LSE:GNC

Stock Analysis Report

Executive Summary

Greencore Group plc manufactures and sells various convenience food products primarily in the United Kingdom.

Rewards

Trading at 27.1% below its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 22.49% per year

Earnings grew by 316.6% over the past year

Risk Analysis

Has a high level of debt

Unstable dividend track record

Large one-off items impacting financial results



Snowflake Analysis

High growth potential average dividend payer.


Similar Companies

Share Price & News

How has Greencore Group's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: GNC has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

2.0%

GNC

-0.4%

GB Food

-0.4%

GB Market


1 Year Return

27.4%

GNC

10.0%

GB Food

6.6%

GB Market

Return vs Industry: GNC exceeded the UK Food industry which returned 8.5% over the past year.

Return vs Market: GNC exceeded the UK Market which returned 6.2% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

GNCIndustryMarket
7 Day2.0%-0.4%-0.4%
30 Day2.8%0.1%-1.7%
90 Day3.1%6.9%5.4%
1 Year30.8%27.4%12.8%10.0%12.4%6.6%
3 Year9.0%0.5%9.0%1.9%18.5%3.4%
5 Year4.4%-24.0%7.1%-3.6%35.8%4.7%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is Greencore Group's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is Greencore Group undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

27.1%

Undervalued compared to fair value


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: GNC (£2.52) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£3.45)

Significantly Below Fair Value: GNC is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: GNC is poor value based on its PE Ratio (32.5x) compared to the Food industry average (16.8x).

PE vs Market: GNC is poor value based on its PE Ratio (32.5x) compared to the UK market (18.5x).


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: GNC is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (1.4x)


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: GNC is overvalued based on its PB Ratio (3.7x) compared to the GB Food industry average (1.2x).


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is Greencore Group forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 9 analysts?

22.5%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: GNC's forecast earnings growth (22.5% per year) is above the savings rate (0.5%).

Earnings vs Market: GNC's earnings (22.5% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the UK market (12.2% per year).

High Growth Earnings: earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: GNC's revenue (3.7% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the UK market (3.5% per year).

High Growth Revenue: GNC's revenue (3.7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: GNC's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (21.2%)


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has Greencore Group performed over the past 5 years?

-28.4%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: GNC has a large one-off loss of £30.2M impacting its September 27 2019 financial results.

Growing Profit Margin: GNC's current net profit margins (2.8%) are higher than last year (0.7%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: GNC's earnings have declined by -28.4% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: GNC's earnings growth over the past year (316.6%) exceeds its 5-year average (-28.4% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: GNC earnings growth over the past year (316.6%) exceeded the Food industry 8.5%.


Return on Equity

High ROE: GNC's Return on Equity (14.2%) is considered low.


Return on Assets


Return on Capital Employed


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is Greencore Group's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: GNC's short term assets (£262.0M) do not cover its short term liabilities (£378.9M).

Long Term Liabilities: GNC's short term assets (£262.0M) do not cover its long term liabilities (£479.1M).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: GNC's debt to equity ratio (108.7%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: GNC's debt to equity ratio has increased from 83.6% to 108.7% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: GNC's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (26.1%).

Interest Coverage: GNC's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (7.2x coverage).


Balance Sheet

Inventory Level: GNC has a high level of physical assets or inventory.

Debt Coverage by Assets: GNC's debt is not covered by short term assets (assets are 0.8x debt).


Next Steps

Dividend

What is Greencore Group's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

2.46%

Current Dividend Yield


Dividend Yield vs Market

company2.5%marketbottom25%1.8%markettop25%5.1%industryaverage2.3%forecastin3Years2.9%

Current dividend yield vs market & industry

Notable Dividend: GNC's dividend (2.46%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the UK market (1.82%).

High Dividend: GNC's dividend (2.46%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the UK market (5.15%).


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: GNC's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: GNC's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: At its current payout ratio (80.1%), GNC's payments are covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: GNC's dividends in 3 years are forecast to be well covered by earnings (37.5% payout ratio).


Next Steps

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

2.1yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Patrick Coveney (49yo)

11.9yrs

Tenure

UK£2,353,000

Compensation

Mr. Patrick F. Coveney, B.Comm, M.Phil, D.Phil, has been the Chief Executive Officer of Greencore Group Plc since March 2008 and served as its Chairman of the Group Executive Board. Mr. Coveney serves as a ...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Patrick's total compensation ($USD2.54M) is above average for companies of similar size in the UK market ($USD1.83M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Patrick's compensation has increased by more than 20% in the past year.


Leadership Team

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
Patrick Coveney
CEO & Executive Director11.9yrsUK£2.35m0.85% £9.5m
Eoin Tonge
CFO, Member of the Group Executive Board & Executive Director3.3yrsUK£1.03m0.14% £1.6m
Nigel Blakey
Finance Director & Member of the Group Executive Board3.3yrsno datano data
Tracy Costello
CIO & Member of the Group Executive Board2.1yrsno datano data
Alwen Hill
Group Purchasing Director & Member of the Group Executive Board2.1yrsno datano data
Emma Hynes
Group Finance Director & Member of the Group Executive Board2.1yrsno datano data
Martin Ford
Technical Director1.3yrsno datano data
Jack Gorman
Head of Investor Relations0yrsno datano data
Michael Evans
Group Communications Director0yrsno datano data
Guy Dullage
HR Director0yrsno datano data

2.1yrs

Average Tenure

Experienced Management: GNC's management team is considered experienced (2.1 years average tenure).


Board Members

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
Patrick Coveney
CEO & Executive Director11.9yrsUK£2.35m0.85% £9.5m
Eoin Tonge
CFO, Member of the Group Executive Board & Executive Director3.3yrsUK£1.03m0.14% £1.6m
Sly Bailey
Senior Independent Director2.2yrsUK£94.50k0.013% £140.0k
Paul Kennedy
Independent Chairman7.1yrsUK£325.00k0.035% £386.3k
John Warren
Non-Executive Director7.1yrsUK£94.50k0.014% £151.1k
Helen Weir
Non-Executive Director0yrsno datano data
Gordon Hardie
Non-Executive Director0yrsno datano data
Heather McSharry
Non-Executive Director7.1yrsUK£90.00k0.013% £145.9k
Helen Rose
Non-Executive Director1.8yrsUK£78.00k0.0056% £63.0k

7.1yrs

Average Tenure

55yo

Average Age

Experienced Board: GNC's board of directors are considered experienced (7.1 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

Greencore Group plc's company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Greencore Group plc
  • Ticker: GNC
  • Exchange: LSE
  • Founded: 1991
  • Industry: Packaged Foods and Meats
  • Sector: Food, Beverage & Tobacco
  • Market Cap: UK£1.115b
  • Shares outstanding: 442.71m
  • Website: https://www.greencore.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • Greencore Group plc
  • No. 2 Northwood Avenue
  • Northwood Business Park
  • Dublin
  • Co. Dublin
  • D09 X5N9
  • Ireland

Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
GNCG.FOTCPK (Pink Sheets LLC)YesOrdinary SharesUSUSDMay 1991
GNCLSE (London Stock Exchange)YesOrdinary SharesGBGBPMay 1991
GCGDB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesOrdinary SharesDEEURMay 1991
GNCLBATS-CHIXE (BATS 'Chi-X Europe')YesOrdinary SharesGBGBPMay 1991
GNCG NBMV (Bolsa Mexicana de Valores)YesOrdinary SharesMXMXNMay 1991
GNCG.YOTCPK (Pink Sheets LLC)SPONSORED ADRUSUSDMay 1999

Biography

Greencore Group plc manufactures and sells various convenience food products primarily in the United Kingdom. The company provides sandwiches, sushi, salads, chilled ready meals, chilled soups and sauces, chilled quiche, ambient sauces and pickles, frozen Yorkshire puddings, cakes, and desserts. It also trades in Irish ingredients; and invests in properties. The company sells its products through grocery and other retailers, including supermarkets, as well as convenience stores. Greencore Group plc was founded in 1991 and is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland. 


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2020/02/19 20:37
End of Day Share Price2020/02/19 00:00
Earnings2019/09/27
Annual Earnings2019/09/27


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.