Greencore Group plc (LON:GNC) Stock Rockets 29% As Investors Are Less Pessimistic Than Expected

Greencore Group plc (LON:GNC) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 29% gain in the last month alone. The annual gain comes to 118% following the latest surge, making investors sit up and take notice.

After such a large jump in price, Greencore Group may be sending bearish signals at the moment with its price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 21.3x, since almost half of all companies in the United Kingdom have P/E ratios under 17x and even P/E's lower than 10x are not unusual. However, the P/E might be high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

The earnings growth achieved at Greencore Group over the last year would be more than acceptable for most companies. It might be that many expect the respectable earnings performance to beat most other companies over the coming period, which has increased investors’ willingness to pay up for the stock. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

See our latest analysis for Greencore Group

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Greencore Group, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Does Growth Match The High P/E?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, Greencore Group would need to produce impressive growth in excess of the market.

If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 18%. Still, EPS has barely risen at all from three years ago in total, which is not ideal. Accordingly, shareholders probably wouldn't have been overly satisfied with the unstable medium-term growth rates.

Comparing that to the market, which is predicted to deliver 17% growth in the next 12 months, the company's momentum is weaker based on recent medium-term annualised earnings results.

With this information, we find it concerning that Greencore Group is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

What We Can Learn From Greencore Group's P/E?

Greencore Group's P/E is getting right up there since its shares have risen strongly. Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

We've established that Greencore Group currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider market forecast. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance isn't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

The company's balance sheet is another key area for risk analysis. You can assess many of the main risks through our free balance sheet analysis for Greencore Group with six simple checks.

If you're unsure about the strength of Greencore Group's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.