Intermediate Capital Group plc Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Last week saw the newest annual earnings release from Intermediate Capital Group plc (LON:ICG), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of UK£905m were in line with what the analysts predicted, Intermediate Capital Group surprised by delivering a statutory profit of UK£1.62 per share, a notable 18% above expectations. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

See our latest analysis for Intermediate Capital Group

After the latest results, the eleven analysts covering Intermediate Capital Group are now predicting revenues of UK£1.00b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a solid 11% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to decrease 4.6% to UK£1.55 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of UK£985.2m and earnings per share (EPS) of UK£1.52 in 2025. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

The consensus price target was unchanged at UK£24.31, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Intermediate Capital Group analyst has a price target of UK£30.36 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at UK£16.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Intermediate Capital Group shareholders.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Intermediate Capital Group's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 11% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 15% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 4.8% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Intermediate Capital Group is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Intermediate Capital Group's earnings potential next year. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Intermediate Capital Group going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Intermediate Capital Group has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.