Is It Too Late To Consider Buying Taylor Wimpey plc (LON:TW.)?

While Taylor Wimpey plc (LON:TW.) might not be the most widely known stock at the moment, it received a lot of attention from a substantial price increase on the LSE over the last few months. With many analysts covering the mid-cap stock, we may expect any price-sensitive announcements have already been factored into the stock’s share price. However, what if the stock is still a bargain? Let’s take a look at Taylor Wimpey’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if the opportunity still exists.

Check out our latest analysis for Taylor Wimpey

What's The Opportunity In Taylor Wimpey?

According to my price multiple model, which makes a comparison between the company's price-to-earnings ratio and the industry average, the stock price seems to be justfied. I’ve used the price-to-earnings ratio in this instance because there’s not enough visibility to forecast its cash flows. The stock’s ratio of 6.31x is currently trading slightly below its industry peers’ ratio of 8.33x, which means if you buy Taylor Wimpey today, you’d be paying a reasonable price for it. And if you believe that Taylor Wimpey should be trading at this level in the long run, then there’s not much of an upside to gain over and above other industry peers. So, is there another chance to buy low in the future? Given that Taylor Wimpey’s share is fairly volatile (i.e. its price movements are magnified relative to the rest of the market) this could mean the price can sink lower, giving us an opportunity to buy later on. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for share price volatility.

What kind of growth will Taylor Wimpey generate?

Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. However, with a negative profit growth of -16% expected over the next couple of years, near-term growth certainly doesn’t appear to be a driver for a buy decision for Taylor Wimpey. This certainty tips the risk-return scale towards higher risk.

What This Means For You

Are you a shareholder? Currently, TW. appears to be trading around industry price multiples, but given the uncertainty from negative returns in the future, this could be the right time to de-risk your portfolio. Is your current exposure to the stock beneficial for your total portfolio? And is the opportunity cost of holding a negative-outlook stock too high? Before you make a decision on TW., take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on TW. for a while, now may not be the most advantageous time to buy, given it is trading around industry price multiples. This means there’s less benefit from mispricing. In addition to this, the negative growth outlook increases the risk of holding the stock. However, there are also other important factors we haven’t considered today, which can help crystallize your views on TW. should the price fluctuate below the industry PE ratio.

In light of this, if you'd like to do more analysis on the company, it's vital to be informed of the risks involved. When we did our research, we found 2 warning signs for Taylor Wimpey (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) that we believe deserve your full attention.

If you are no longer interested in Taylor Wimpey, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.