Taylor Wimpey plc

LSE:TW. Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£4.7b

Taylor Wimpey Valuation

Is TW. undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of TW. when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: TW. (£1.32) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£2.18)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TW. is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for TW.?

Key metric: As TW. is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for TW.. This is calculated by dividing TW.'s market cap by their current earnings.
What is TW.'s PE Ratio?
PE Ratio19x
EarningsUK£246.30m
Market CapUK£4.67b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does TW.'s PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for TW. vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average25.5x
PSN Persimmon
15.8x18.8%UK£4.1b
BTRW Barratt Redrow
51.9x42.7%UK£5.9b
BKG Berkeley Group Holdings
11.1x-4.2%UK£4.4b
BWY Bellway
23.2x21.9%UK£3.0b
TW. Taylor Wimpey
19x17.0%UK£4.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: TW. is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19x) compared to the peer average (25.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does TW.'s PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Consumer Durables Industry?

5 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
TW. 19.0xIndustry Avg. 12.7xNo. of Companies12PE0816243240+
5 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: TW. is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19x) compared to the European Consumer Durables industry average (12.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is TW.'s PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

TW. PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio19x
Fair PE Ratio22.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: TW. is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst TW. forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£1.32
UK£1.68
+27.6%
9.4%UK£1.96UK£1.30n/a17
Nov ’25UK£1.47
UK£1.69
+14.9%
9.8%UK£1.99UK£1.30n/a17
Oct ’25UK£1.65
UK£1.68
+2.0%
10.3%UK£1.99UK£1.30n/a17
Sep ’25UK£1.61
UK£1.66
+3.1%
9.6%UK£1.91UK£1.30n/a17
Aug ’25UK£1.59
UK£1.63
+2.4%
9.3%UK£1.90UK£1.30n/a17
Jul ’25UK£1.44
UK£1.58
+10.0%
9.2%UK£1.90UK£1.30n/a17
Jun ’25UK£1.47
UK£1.55
+5.6%
10.2%UK£1.90UK£1.30n/a16
May ’25UK£1.31
UK£1.56
+19.2%
10.6%UK£1.90UK£1.30n/a15
Apr ’25UK£1.37
UK£1.53
+11.5%
13.2%UK£1.90UK£1.01n/a16
Mar ’25UK£1.40
UK£1.53
+9.2%
13.3%UK£1.90UK£1.01n/a16
Feb ’25UK£1.47
UK£1.52
+3.5%
13.0%UK£1.90UK£1.01n/a16
Jan ’25UK£1.47
UK£1.37
-7.2%
15.7%UK£1.90UK£0.96n/a16
Dec ’24UK£1.31
UK£1.34
+2.1%
15.3%UK£1.90UK£0.96n/a16
Nov ’24UK£1.10
UK£1.33
+20.8%
15.4%UK£1.90UK£0.94UK£1.4717
Oct ’24UK£1.17
UK£1.34
+14.0%
15.0%UK£1.90UK£0.94UK£1.6519
Sep ’24UK£1.14
UK£1.34
+17.5%
15.0%UK£1.90UK£0.94UK£1.6119
Aug ’24UK£1.14
UK£1.33
+16.2%
15.6%UK£1.90UK£0.94UK£1.5919
Jul ’24UK£1.03
UK£1.35
+31.4%
13.7%UK£1.90UK£1.07UK£1.4419
Jun ’24UK£1.15
UK£1.38
+19.3%
13.9%UK£1.90UK£1.07UK£1.4718
May ’24UK£1.28
UK£1.37
+6.9%
14.2%UK£1.90UK£1.10UK£1.3118
Apr ’24UK£1.19
UK£1.31
+9.9%
15.8%UK£1.90UK£1.05UK£1.3716
Mar ’24UK£1.18
UK£1.30
+10.0%
14.3%UK£1.80UK£1.05UK£1.4017
Feb ’24UK£1.19
UK£1.28
+8.2%
14.5%UK£1.80UK£1.05UK£1.4717
Jan ’24UK£1.02
UK£1.24
+21.8%
17.6%UK£1.80UK£0.85UK£1.4717
Dec ’23UK£1.05
UK£1.26
+20.6%
19.5%UK£1.80UK£0.85UK£1.3117
Nov ’23UK£0.95
UK£1.46
+54.0%
25.8%UK£2.10UK£0.85UK£1.1016

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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