Persimmon Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of PSN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

PSN (£12.7) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (£18.14)

Is PSN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of PSN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: PSN (£12.7) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£18.14)

Significantly Below Fair Value: PSN is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for PSN?

Key metric: As PSN is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for PSN. This is calculated by dividing PSN's market cap by their current earnings.
What is PSN's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	15.8x
Earnings	UK£256.40m
Market Cap	UK£4.06b

PSN key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.3x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	5.7x
PEG Ratio	0.8x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does PSN's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for PSN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	26.3x
TW. Taylor Wimpey	19x	17.0%	UK£4.7b
BKG Berkeley Group Holdings	11.1x	-4.2%	UK£4.4b
BWY Bellway	23.2x	21.9%	UK£3.0b
BTRW Barratt Redrow	51.9x	42.7%	UK£5.9b
PSN Persimmon	15.8x	18.8%	UK£4.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: PSN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.8x) compared to the peer average (26.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does PSN's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Consumer Durables Industry?

5 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

5 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: PSN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.8x) compared to the European Consumer Durables industry average (13.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is PSN's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

PSN PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	15.8x
Fair PE Ratio	23x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: PSN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst PSN forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	UK£12.70	UK£16.51 +30.0%	13.8%	UK£23.00	UK£14.10	n/a	17
Nov ’25	UK£14.60	UK£16.66 +14.2%	14.0%	UK£23.00	UK£14.10	n/a	17
Oct ’25	UK£16.46	UK£16.57 +0.7%	13.9%	UK£23.00	UK£14.10	n/a	17
Sep ’25	UK£16.44	UK£16.28 -1.0%	13.7%	UK£23.00	UK£14.10	n/a	17
Aug ’25	UK£15.89	UK£15.34 -3.5%	14.7%	UK£23.00	UK£11.80	n/a	17
Jul ’25	UK£13.72	UK£15.29 +11.4%	14.7%	UK£23.00	UK£11.80	n/a	17
Jun ’25	UK£14.45	UK£15.04 +4.0%	15.7%	UK£23.00	UK£11.80	n/a	16
May ’25	UK£12.89	UK£14.93 +15.9%	16.3%	UK£23.00	UK£11.80	n/a	16
Apr ’25	UK£13.16	UK£14.76 +12.2%	17.3%	UK£23.00	UK£11.80	n/a	16
Mar ’25	UK£13.87	UK£14.91 +7.5%	17.8%	UK£23.00	UK£11.20	n/a	16
Feb ’25	UK£14.43	UK£14.74 +2.2%	18.2%	UK£23.00	UK£11.20	n/a	16
Jan ’25	UK£13.89	UK£12.86 -7.4%	22.3%	UK£23.00	UK£9.80	n/a	16
Dec ’24	UK£12.78	UK£12.74 -0.3%	22.4%	UK£23.00	UK£9.80	n/a	16
Nov ’24	UK£10.32	UK£12.94 +25.4%	22.1%	UK£23.00	UK£9.80	UK£14.60	17
Oct ’24	UK£10.78	UK£12.80 +18.8%	21.6%	UK£23.00	UK£9.80	UK£16.46	19
Sep ’24	UK£10.59	UK£12.78 +20.7%	22.2%	UK£23.00	UK£9.80	UK£16.44	18
Aug ’24	UK£11.56	UK£13.49 +16.7%	28.0%	UK£23.80	UK£9.70	UK£15.89	18
Jul ’24	UK£10.26	UK£13.77 +34.2%	27.5%	UK£23.80	UK£9.70	UK£13.72	18
Jun ’24	UK£12.23	UK£14.49 +18.5%	25.4%	UK£23.80	UK£10.59	UK£14.45	17
May ’24	UK£13.14	UK£14.52 +10.5%	25.2%	UK£23.80	UK£10.59	UK£12.89	17
Apr ’24	UK£12.56	UK£13.87 +10.4%	21.8%	UK£23.00	UK£10.42	UK£13.16	15
Mar ’24	UK£12.78	UK£14.28 +11.8%	19.7%	UK£23.40	UK£11.81	UK£13.87	16
Feb ’24	UK£14.10	UK£14.53 +3.1%	19.2%	UK£23.40	UK£11.81	UK£14.43	16
Jan ’24	UK£12.17	UK£14.51 +19.2%	19.6%	UK£23.40	UK£11.17	UK£13.89	16
Dec ’23	UK£12.85	UK£14.88 +15.8%	22.1%	UK£23.40	UK£11.17	UK£12.78	16
Nov ’23	UK£13.22	UK£18.27 +38.2%	30.6%	UK£29.00	UK£11.17	UK£10.32	15

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.