Persimmon Plc

LSE:PSN Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£3.9b

Persimmon Valuation

Is PSN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of PSN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: PSN (£12.22) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£21.7)

Significantly Below Fair Value: PSN is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for PSN?

Key metric: As PSN is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for PSN. This is calculated by dividing PSN's market cap by their current earnings.
What is PSN's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio15.2x
EarningsUK£256.40m
Market CapUK£3.91b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does PSN's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for PSN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average26.5x
TW. Taylor Wimpey
18x16.9%UK£4.4b
BKG Berkeley Group Holdings
10.6x-5.6%UK£4.0b
BWY Bellway
22x21.7%UK£2.9b
BTRW Barratt Redrow
55.4x42.7%UK£6.3b
PSN Persimmon
15.2x18.5%UK£3.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: PSN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.2x) compared to the peer average (26.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does PSN's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Consumer Durables Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
PSN 15.2xIndustry Avg. 13.1xNo. of Companies11PE0816243240+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: PSN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.2x) compared to the European Consumer Durables industry average (13.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is PSN's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

PSN PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio15.2x
Fair PE Ratio22.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: PSN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst PSN forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£12.22
UK£15.98
+30.8%
14.9%UK£23.00UK£12.75n/a17
Dec ’25UK£12.58
UK£16.51
+31.2%
13.8%UK£23.00UK£14.10n/a17
Nov ’25UK£14.60
UK£16.66
+14.2%
14.0%UK£23.00UK£14.10n/a17
Oct ’25UK£16.46
UK£16.57
+0.7%
13.9%UK£23.00UK£14.10n/a17
Sep ’25UK£16.44
UK£16.28
-1.0%
13.7%UK£23.00UK£14.10n/a17
Aug ’25UK£15.89
UK£15.34
-3.5%
14.7%UK£23.00UK£11.80n/a17
Jul ’25UK£13.72
UK£15.29
+11.4%
14.7%UK£23.00UK£11.80n/a17
Jun ’25UK£14.45
UK£15.04
+4.0%
15.7%UK£23.00UK£11.80n/a16
May ’25UK£12.89
UK£14.93
+15.9%
16.3%UK£23.00UK£11.80n/a16
Apr ’25UK£13.16
UK£14.76
+12.2%
17.3%UK£23.00UK£11.80n/a16
Mar ’25UK£13.87
UK£14.91
+7.5%
17.8%UK£23.00UK£11.20n/a16
Feb ’25UK£14.43
UK£14.74
+2.2%
18.2%UK£23.00UK£11.20n/a16
Jan ’25UK£13.89
UK£12.86
-7.4%
22.3%UK£23.00UK£9.80n/a16
Dec ’24UK£12.78
UK£12.74
-0.3%
22.4%UK£23.00UK£9.80UK£12.5816
Nov ’24UK£10.32
UK£12.94
+25.4%
22.1%UK£23.00UK£9.80UK£14.6017
Oct ’24UK£10.78
UK£12.80
+18.8%
21.6%UK£23.00UK£9.80UK£16.4619
Sep ’24UK£10.59
UK£12.78
+20.7%
22.2%UK£23.00UK£9.80UK£16.4418
Aug ’24UK£11.56
UK£13.49
+16.7%
28.0%UK£23.80UK£9.70UK£15.8918
Jul ’24UK£10.26
UK£13.77
+34.2%
27.5%UK£23.80UK£9.70UK£13.7218
Jun ’24UK£12.23
UK£14.49
+18.5%
25.4%UK£23.80UK£10.59UK£14.4517
May ’24UK£13.14
UK£14.52
+10.5%
25.2%UK£23.80UK£10.59UK£12.8917
Apr ’24UK£12.56
UK£13.87
+10.4%
21.8%UK£23.00UK£10.42UK£13.1615
Mar ’24UK£12.78
UK£14.28
+11.8%
19.7%UK£23.40UK£11.81UK£13.8716
Feb ’24UK£14.10
UK£14.53
+3.1%
19.2%UK£23.40UK£11.81UK£14.4316
Jan ’24UK£12.17
UK£14.51
+19.2%
19.6%UK£23.40UK£11.17UK£13.8916
Dec ’23UK£12.85
UK£14.88
+15.8%
22.1%UK£23.40UK£11.17UK£12.7816

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/18 04:07
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/18 00:00
Earnings2024/06/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Persimmon Plc is covered by 43 analysts. 17 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Timothy RichmondArden Partners Plc.
Clyde LewisAuerbach Grayson
Emily BiddulphBarclays