Persimmon Future Growth
Future criteria checks 3/6
Persimmon is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 12.2% and 5.5% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 12.1% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 10.4% in 3 years.
Key information
12.2%
Earnings growth rate
12.10%
EPS growth rate
| Consumer Durables earnings growth | 13.6% |
| Revenue growth rate | 5.5% |
| Future return on equity | 10.36% |
| Analyst coverage | Good |
| Last updated | 04 May 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • Apr 21
PSN: Forward Order Book And Higher Future P E Multiple Will Support Returns
Analysts have trimmed Persimmon's fair value estimate and lowered the average price target by £2.20 to reflect slightly softer assumptions on revenue growth and profit margins, even as recent Street research points to a modest uplift in target prices from £16.00 to £16.10 and from £14.80 to £15.14, along with a higher assumed future P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Persimmon offers a mix of cautious tweaks and incremental optimism around valuation, providing a more nuanced picture of how expectations are being reset.Narrative Update • Apr 06
PSN: Forward Order Book Progress Will Support Future Completion Volumes
Analysts have lifted Persimmon's price target slightly, with recent moves such as Morgan Stanley's increase to £16.10 and Barclays' to £15.14, supported by modestly lower fair value estimates and small adjustments to discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E assumptions. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Persimmon points to a mixed but generally constructive view, with several price targets adjusted in a tight range and one downgrade adding a more cautious voice.Narrative Update • Mar 23
PSN: Forward Order Book And Lower Discount Rate Will Support Upside Potential
Narrative Update The updated analyst price target for Persimmon moves slightly higher to about £16.10 from roughly £16.28, as analysts factor in more cautious revenue growth and profit margin assumptions, partly balanced by modestly higher P/E expectations and recent target lifts from several banks. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Persimmon shows a mix of cautious and constructive views, with modest target changes and at least one downgrade shaping how the market is thinking about valuation, execution and future growth potential.Narrative Update • Mar 09
PSN: Recent Rating Split And Lower Discount Rate Will Support Upside Potential
Analysts have nudged their target on Persimmon slightly higher, with small improvements in fair value estimates and a modestly lower discount rate supporting the recent £1,514 price target update, while keeping overall growth and margin assumptions broadly unchanged. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Persimmon has been mixed, with some bullish analysts nudging price targets higher while at least one bearish analyst has shifted to a more cautious stance.Narrative Update • Feb 22
PSN: Mixed Rating Shifts And Modest Assumption Tweaks Will Shape Share Price Resilience
Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for Persimmon slightly higher to £16.26, reflecting small adjustments to assumptions on discount rate, revenue growth and future P/E. The revised estimate also factors in recent Street research, including a modest price target increase from Citi and a downgrade from Deutsche Bank.Narrative Update • Feb 07
PSN: Higher Future P/E Assumptions Will Support Share Price Resilience
Narrative Update on Persimmon Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for Persimmon higher to £16.23 from £16.14, citing refreshed assumptions on discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E that collectively support a slightly richer price target despite a recent downgrade and only a modest target increase of 2 GBp from Citi. Analyst Commentary Recent commentary on Persimmon has been mixed, with one downgrade offset by a small target lift.Analysis Article • Jan 29
At UK£14.50, Is Persimmon Plc (LON:PSN) Worth Looking At Closely?
Persimmon Plc ( LON:PSN ), might not be a large cap stock, but it saw a significant share price rise of 26% in the past...Narrative Update • Jan 23
PSN: Higher P/E Assumptions And Revenue Outlook Will Support Future Upside
Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for Persimmon to approximately £16.14 from about £15.76, citing revised assumptions for revenue growth, discount rate and future P/E that align with recent price target changes and rating actions on the stock. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Persimmon has been mixed, with valuation work and rating actions pointing to both upside potential and execution risks.Narrative Update • Jan 09
PSN: Contract Discipline And Higher P/E Assumptions Will Support Future Upside
Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for Persimmon up from £14.63 to about £15.76, citing slightly adjusted assumptions for discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E, as they refine their models following recent sector research. Analyst Commentary Recent research on a peer in a different sector highlights how markets can react strongly to contract news and changing expectations, which is useful context when thinking about Persimmon's refined fair value range.Analysis Article • Jan 08
Persimmon Plc (LON:PSN) Doing What It Can To Lift Shares
With a median price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of close to 17x in the United Kingdom, you could be forgiven for...
Narrative Update • Dec 26
PSN: Strong Balance Sheet And Cash Focus Will Support Premium Earnings Multiple
Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for Persimmon modestly higher from £17.87 to £18.15. This reflects a slightly richer future earnings multiple, despite tempering assumptions for revenue growth and profit margins alongside a higher discount rate.Analysis Article • Dec 09
Persimmon (LON:PSN) Will Be Looking To Turn Around Its Returns
If you're looking at a mature business that's past the growth phase, what are some of the underlying trends that pop...Narrative Update • Nov 28
PSN: Upcoming Contract Wins And Margin Stability Will Support Measured Performance
Analysts have modestly increased their fair value estimate for Persimmon to $14.63, citing improved revenue growth projections and ongoing margin stability based on recent industry research. Analyst Commentary Recent analyst coverage highlights both optimistic and cautious perspectives regarding Persimmon's future performance.Analysis Article • Nov 20
Are Investors Undervaluing Persimmon Plc (LON:PSN) By 47%?
Key Insights The projected fair value for Persimmon is UK£22.86 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Persimmon is...Narrative Update • Nov 13
PSN: Future Housing Demand Will Drive Market Share And Earnings Stability
Persimmon's analyst price target was reduced from £14.50 to £13.00, as analysts cite a softer outlook on profit margins and discount rate adjustments, despite stable revenue growth projections. Analyst Commentary Recent analyst updates reflect a cautious but balanced outlook for Persimmon, with valuation adjustments reflecting both stable growth expectations and concerns about profitability.Analysis Article • Oct 05
Is It Time To Consider Buying Persimmon Plc (LON:PSN)?
Persimmon Plc ( LON:PSN ), might not be a large cap stock, but it saw a decent share price growth of 12% on the LSE...Narrative Update • Sep 04
UK Housing Demand Will Fuel Future Market Expansion
Analysts remain split on Persimmon, with bullish sentiment driven by new site openings and an improved operating outlook balancing persistent near-term concerns over affordability and margins, resulting in an unchanged consensus price target of £14.92. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts raise targets and recommendations due to Persimmon's continued success in opening new sites and increasing the number of active sites, which supports growth expectations.Analysis Article • Sep 02
Market Cool On Persimmon Plc's (LON:PSN) Earnings
Persimmon Plc's ( LON:PSN ) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 13.4x might make it look like a buy right now...Analysis Article • Aug 12
Is Persimmon Plc (LON:PSN) Trading At A 45% Discount?
Key Insights Persimmon's estimated fair value is UK£20.58 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Persimmon is...Analysis Article • Jul 08
Persimmon's (LON:PSN) Returns On Capital Not Reflecting Well On The Business
If we're looking to avoid a business that is in decline, what are the trends that can warn us ahead of time? Businesses...Analysis Article • May 17
The Price Is Right For Persimmon Plc (LON:PSN)
There wouldn't be many who think Persimmon Plc's ( LON:PSN ) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 16.4x is worth a...
New Narrative • Mar 16
Vertical Integration And Brand Diversification Will Strengthen Future Margins
Strong land investment strategy and brand diversification support growth, high margins, and capture different market segments, driving future revenue and operational efficiency.Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2028 | 4,328 | 401 | 411 | 381 | 14 |
| 12/31/2027 | 4,055 | 356 | 335 | 313 | 17 |
| 12/31/2026 | 3,833 | 327 | 116 | 142 | 18 |
| 12/31/2025 | 3,751 | 286 | -11 | 30 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 3,569 | 271 | -22 | 21 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 3,387 | 256 | -33 | 12 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 3,294 | 262 | 10 | 48 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 3,201 | 267 | 53 | 85 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 3,051 | 262 | 69 | 100 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 2,901 | 256 | 86 | 115 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 2,837 | 256 | -40 | -7 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 2,773 | 255 | -166 | -130 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 3,044 | 293 | -16 | 21 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 3,316 | 331 | 134 | 171 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 3,566 | 446 | 253 | 287 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 3,816 | 561 | 372 | 402 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 3,637 | 648 | 296 | 324 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 3,458 | 736 | 220 | 246 | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 3,534 | 762 | 492 | 515 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 3,611 | 787 | 764 | 785 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 3,795 | 790 | 1,002 | 1,021 | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | 3,979 | 792 | 1,240 | 1,258 | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | 3,653 | 715 | 993 | 1,012 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 3,328 | 638 | 747 | 766 | N/A |
| 9/30/2020 | 3,207 | 657 | 550 | 572 | N/A |
| 6/30/2020 | 3,086 | 675 | 354 | 378 | N/A |
| 3/31/2020 | 3,368 | 762 | 473 | 499 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 3,649 | 849 | 593 | 620 | N/A |
| 9/30/2019 | 3,653 | 864 | N/A | 607 | N/A |
| 6/30/2019 | 3,656 | 879 | N/A | 593 | N/A |
| 3/31/2019 | 3,697 | 883 | N/A | 624 | N/A |
| 12/31/2018 | 3,738 | 886 | N/A | 654 | N/A |
| 9/30/2018 | 3,709 | 862 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6/30/2018 | 3,680 | 837 | N/A | 829 | N/A |
| 3/31/2018 | 3,639 | 812 | N/A | 827 | N/A |
| 12/31/2017 | 3,598 | 787 | N/A | 824 | N/A |
| 9/30/2017 | 3,499 | 749 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6/30/2017 | 3,401 | 711 | N/A | 755 | N/A |
| 3/31/2017 | 3,269 | 668 | N/A | 726 | N/A |
| 12/31/2016 | 3,137 | 625 | N/A | 698 | N/A |
| 9/30/2016 | 3,098 | 597 | N/A | 618 | N/A |
| 6/30/2016 | 3,059 | 568 | N/A | 538 | N/A |
| 3/31/2016 | 2,980 | 545 | N/A | 516 | N/A |
| 12/31/2015 | 2,902 | 522 | N/A | 494 | N/A |
| 9/30/2015 | 2,805 | 484 | N/A | 480 | N/A |
| 6/30/2015 | 2,708 | 446 | N/A | 466 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: PSN's forecast earnings growth (12.2% per year) is above the savings rate (3.4%).
Earnings vs Market: PSN's earnings (12.2% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the UK market (12.2% per year).
High Growth Earnings: PSN's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.
Revenue vs Market: PSN's revenue (5.5% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the UK market (4.4% per year).
High Growth Revenue: PSN's revenue (5.5% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: PSN's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (10.4%).
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/08 16:24 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/08 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Persimmon Plc is covered by 34 analysts. 18 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Jonathan Bell | Barclays |
| Rajesh Patki | Barclays |
| Emily Biddulph | Barclays |