The Berkeley Group Holdings plc

LSE:BKG Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£4.0b

Berkeley Group Holdings Valuation

Is BKG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of BKG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: BKG (£38.98) is trading above our estimate of fair value (£28.92)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BKG is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BKG?

Key metric: As BKG is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for BKG. This is calculated by dividing BKG's market cap by their current earnings.
What is BKG's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio10.4x
EarningsUK£381.70m
Market CapUK£3.97b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does BKG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for BKG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average27.3x
TW. Taylor Wimpey
17.6x16.9%UK£4.3b
PSN Persimmon
15.1x18.5%UK£3.9b
BWY Bellway
21.8x21.7%UK£2.8b
BTRW Barratt Redrow
54.7x42.7%UK£6.2b
BKG Berkeley Group Holdings
10.4x-5.6%UK£4.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: BKG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.4x) compared to the peer average (27.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does BKG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Consumer Durables Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
BKG 10.4xIndustry Avg. 13.2xNo. of Companies10PE0816243240+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: BKG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.4x) compared to the European Consumer Durables industry average (13.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is BKG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

BKG PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio10.4x
Fair PE Ratio12.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: BKG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst BKG forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£38.98
UK£48.05
+23.3%
10.6%UK£56.00UK£40.44n/a16
Dec ’25UK£41.48
UK£51.15
+23.3%
10.1%UK£62.00UK£41.40n/a16
Nov ’25UK£44.26
UK£52.02
+17.5%
10.4%UK£64.26UK£41.40n/a16
Oct ’25UK£47.07
UK£52.13
+10.7%
10.5%UK£64.26UK£41.40n/a16
Sep ’25UK£51.65
UK£51.44
-0.4%
10.9%UK£64.26UK£41.40n/a17
Aug ’25UK£52.65
UK£51.11
-2.9%
10.5%UK£64.26UK£41.40n/a18
Jul ’25UK£47.88
UK£51.05
+6.6%
10.5%UK£64.26UK£41.40n/a18
Jun ’25UK£54.31
UK£50.49
-7.0%
9.2%UK£58.04UK£41.40n/a17
May ’25UK£48.79
UK£49.73
+1.9%
8.8%UK£57.00UK£41.40n/a17
Apr ’25UK£49.31
UK£49.33
+0.04%
8.5%UK£57.00UK£41.40n/a16
Mar ’25UK£48.40
UK£49.33
+1.9%
8.5%UK£57.00UK£41.40n/a16
Feb ’25UK£49.58
UK£49.33
-0.5%
8.5%UK£57.00UK£41.40n/a16
Jan ’25UK£48.59
UK£47.87
-1.5%
9.4%UK£53.53UK£38.35n/a16
Dec ’24UK£48.83
UK£46.53
-4.7%
10.1%UK£53.48UK£38.35UK£41.4816
Nov ’24UK£42.35
UK£46.05
+8.7%
9.3%UK£52.86UK£38.35UK£44.2617
Oct ’24UK£42.56
UK£45.10
+6.0%
11.8%UK£52.86UK£31.09UK£47.0719
Sep ’24UK£41.93
UK£44.77
+6.8%
11.8%UK£52.86UK£31.09UK£51.6518
Aug ’24UK£44.92
UK£44.75
-0.4%
11.8%UK£52.86UK£31.09UK£52.6518
Jul ’24UK£40.66
UK£44.94
+10.5%
12.2%UK£52.86UK£31.09UK£47.8818
Jun ’24UK£41.32
UK£45.29
+9.6%
9.5%UK£52.86UK£38.00UK£54.3116
May ’24UK£46.09
UK£44.90
-2.6%
8.7%UK£50.37UK£38.00UK£48.7916
Apr ’24UK£43.50
UK£43.23
-0.6%
10.9%UK£49.75UK£31.09UK£49.3115
Mar ’24UK£42.60
UK£43.70
+2.6%
11.3%UK£51.82UK£31.09UK£48.4016
Feb ’24UK£43.57
UK£43.71
+0.3%
11.2%UK£51.82UK£31.09UK£49.5816
Jan ’24UK£39.10
UK£43.39
+11.0%
11.6%UK£51.82UK£31.09UK£48.5916
Dec ’23UK£39.87
UK£42.89
+7.6%
11.9%UK£51.82UK£31.09UK£48.8316

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/22 01:01
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/10/31
Annual Earnings2024/04/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

The Berkeley Group Holdings plc is covered by 37 analysts. 16 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Emily BiddulphBarclays
Jonathan BellBarclays
Harry GoadBerenberg