Bellway Valuation

Is BWY undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of BWY when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
UK£29.00
Fair Value
20.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
17
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: BWY (£23.2) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£29)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BWY is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BWY?

Key metric: As BWY is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for BWY. This is calculated by dividing BWY's market cap by their current earnings.
What is BWY's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio21.1x
EarningsUK£130.50m
Market CapUK£2.75b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does BWY's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for BWY vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average23x
TW. Taylor Wimpey
16.4x14.7%UK£4.0b
PSN Persimmon
15.1x16.9%UK£3.9b
BKG Berkeley Group Holdings
9.8x-5.3%UK£3.8b
BTRW Barratt Redrow
50.6x32.8%UK£6.1b
BWY Bellway
21.1x21.2%UK£2.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: BWY is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.1x) compared to the peer average (23x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does BWY's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Consumer Durables Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
BWY 21.1xIndustry Avg. 14.1xNo. of Companies11PE0816243240+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: BWY is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.1x) compared to the European Consumer Durables industry average (14.1x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is BWY's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

BWY PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio21.1x
Fair PE Ratio23.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: BWY is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.9x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst BWY forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£23.20
UK£31.22
+34.6%
13.0%UK£38.50UK£24.00n/a17
Feb ’26UK£26.22
UK£32.04
+22.2%
12.8%UK£38.50UK£24.00n/a16
Jan ’26UK£24.92
UK£33.57
+34.7%
9.0%UK£38.50UK£27.00n/a15
Dec ’25UK£25.08
UK£34.15
+36.2%
8.7%UK£38.50UK£27.00n/a15
Nov ’25UK£28.12
UK£34.38
+22.3%
9.1%UK£38.50UK£27.00n/a15
Oct ’25UK£31.08
UK£32.63
+5.0%
10.2%UK£38.50UK£27.00n/a15
Sep ’25UK£30.34
UK£31.85
+5.0%
12.1%UK£38.50UK£23.50n/a16
Aug ’25UK£28.44
UK£30.19
+6.2%
12.2%UK£37.50UK£23.50n/a12
Jul ’25UK£25.40
UK£30.04
+18.3%
12.4%UK£37.50UK£23.50n/a12
Jun ’25UK£26.78
UK£30.05
+12.2%
12.0%UK£37.50UK£23.50n/a15
May ’25UK£25.04
UK£30.04
+20.0%
12.0%UK£37.50UK£23.50n/a15
Apr ’25UK£26.64
UK£29.64
+11.3%
13.9%UK£37.50UK£21.70n/a15
Mar ’25UK£27.54
UK£29.47
+7.0%
14.1%UK£37.50UK£21.70n/a15
Feb ’25UK£27.26
UK£28.69
+5.3%
13.3%UK£37.50UK£21.70UK£26.2215
Jan ’25UK£25.68
UK£26.90
+4.7%
15.0%UK£37.50UK£21.70UK£24.9215
Dec ’24UK£23.96
UK£26.53
+10.7%
16.1%UK£37.50UK£21.70UK£25.0815
Nov ’24UK£21.00
UK£26.64
+26.9%
16.0%UK£37.50UK£21.70UK£28.1216
Oct ’24UK£22.84
UK£26.65
+16.7%
15.8%UK£37.50UK£20.00UK£31.0818
Sep ’24UK£21.20
UK£26.16
+23.4%
14.5%UK£37.50UK£20.00UK£30.3417
Aug ’24UK£22.16
UK£26.59
+20.0%
14.3%UK£37.50UK£20.00UK£28.4417
Jul ’24UK£19.88
UK£27.00
+35.8%
13.4%UK£37.50UK£20.00UK£25.4017
Jun ’24UK£23.18
UK£27.53
+18.8%
11.9%UK£37.50UK£23.30UK£26.7815
May ’24UK£24.12
UK£27.06
+12.2%
13.2%UK£37.50UK£22.00UK£25.0415
Apr ’24UK£22.07
UK£26.09
+18.2%
15.3%UK£37.50UK£20.30UK£26.6414
Mar ’24UK£21.37
UK£25.70
+20.2%
15.7%UK£37.50UK£20.30UK£27.5415
Feb ’24UK£21.44
UK£25.26
+17.8%
16.2%UK£36.70UK£20.30UK£27.2615
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 17 Analysts
UK£31.22
Fair Value
25.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
17
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.


Discover undervalued companies

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/02/21 01:04
End of Day Share Price 2025/02/21 00:00
Earnings2024/07/31
Annual Earnings2024/07/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Bellway p.l.c. is covered by 41 analysts. 16 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Gavin JagoBarclays
Emily BiddulphBarclays
Jonathan BellBarclays