Grafton Group plc Just Recorded A 6.9% EPS Beat: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next

It's been a good week for Grafton Group plc (LON:GFTU) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest full-year results, and the shares gained 5.3% to UK£8.78. Grafton Group reported UK£2.3b in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of UK£0.61 beat expectations, being 6.9% higher than what the analysts expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Grafton Group

Following the latest results, Grafton Group's nine analysts are now forecasting revenues of UK£2.50b in 2025. This would be a notable 9.4% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be UK£0.61, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of UK£2.50b and earnings per share (EPS) of UK£0.61 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at UK£11.80. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Grafton Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at UK£12.75 and the most bearish at UK£11.00 per share. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Grafton Group's past performance and to peers in the same industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Grafton Group's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 9.4% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 2.1% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.4% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Grafton Group is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at UK£11.80, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Grafton Group going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We also provide an overview of the Grafton Group Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.