Here's Why We're Not Too Worried About Ceres Power Holdings' (LON:CWR) Cash Burn Situation

We can readily understand why investors are attracted to unprofitable companies. For example, although Amazon.com made losses for many years after listing, if you had bought and held the shares since 1999, you would have made a fortune. Nonetheless, only a fool would ignore the risk that a loss making company burns through its cash too quickly.

Given this risk, we thought we'd take a look at whether Ceres Power Holdings (LON:CWR) shareholders should be worried about its cash burn. In this article, we define cash burn as its annual (negative) free cash flow, which is the amount of money a company spends each year to fund its growth. The first step is to compare its cash burn with its cash reserves, to give us its 'cash runway'.

Our analysis indicates that CWR is potentially overvalued!

How Long Is Ceres Power Holdings' Cash Runway?

A company's cash runway is the amount of time it would take to burn through its cash reserves at its current cash burn rate. In June 2022, Ceres Power Holdings had UK£222m in cash, and was debt-free. Looking at the last year, the company burnt through UK£43m. That means it had a cash runway of about 5.2 years as of June 2022. While this is only one measure of its cash burn situation, it certainly gives us the impression that holders have nothing to worry about. However, if we extrapolate the company's recent cash burn trend, then it would have a longer cash run way. You can see how its cash balance has changed over time in the image below.

How Well Is Ceres Power Holdings Growing?

Ceres Power Holdings actually ramped up its cash burn by a whopping 74% in the last year, which shows it is boosting investment in the business. As if that's not bad enough, the operating revenue also dropped by 20%, making us very wary indeed. Taken together, we think these growth metrics are a little worrying. Clearly, however, the crucial factor is whether the company will grow its business going forward. For that reason, it makes a lot of sense to take a look at our analyst forecasts for the company.

How Easily Can Ceres Power Holdings Raise Cash?

While Ceres Power Holdings seems to be in a fairly good position, it's still worth considering how easily it could raise more cash, even just to fuel faster growth. Companies can raise capital through either debt or equity. One of the main advantages held by publicly listed companies is that they can sell shares to investors to raise cash and fund growth. By looking at a company's cash burn relative to its market capitalisation, we gain insight on how much shareholders would be diluted if the company needed to raise enough cash to cover another year's cash burn.

Ceres Power Holdings' cash burn of UK£43m is about 6.2% of its UK£691m market capitalisation. Given that is a rather small percentage, it would probably be really easy for the company to fund another year's growth by issuing some new shares to investors, or even by taking out a loan.

So, Should We Worry About Ceres Power Holdings' Cash Burn?

On this analysis of Ceres Power Holdings' cash burn, we think its cash runway was reassuring, while its increasing cash burn has us a bit worried. Considering all the factors discussed in this article, we're not overly concerned about the company's cash burn, although we do think shareholders should keep an eye on how it develops. Taking a deeper dive, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Ceres Power Holdings you should be aware of, and 1 of them can't be ignored.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies insiders are buying, and this list of stocks growth stocks (according to analyst forecasts)

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.