Results: NatWest Group plc Beat Earnings Expectations And Analysts Now Have New Forecasts

NatWest Group plc (LON:NWG) just released its latest first-quarter results and things are looking bullish. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 3.8% to hit UK£4.0b. NatWest Group reported statutory earnings per share (EPS) UK£0.15, which was a notable 15% above what the analysts had forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on NatWest Group after the latest results.

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After the latest results, the 15 analysts covering NatWest Group are now predicting revenues of UK£15.8b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a satisfactory 7.3% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to dip 5.6% to UK£0.56 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of UK£15.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of UK£0.55 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

View our latest analysis for NatWest Group

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of UK£5.22, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values NatWest Group at UK£6.35 per share, while the most bearish prices it at UK£3.60. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 9.9% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 10% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 5.6% per year. So it's pretty clear that NatWest Group is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at UK£5.22, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for NatWest Group going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for NatWest Group that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.