Assessing Airbus (ENXTPA:AIR) Valuation After Recent Share Price Rally

Airbus (ENXTPA:AIR) Shares Draw Investor Attention After Recent Run

Airbus (ENXTPA:AIR) stock has been on the move lately, catching the eye of many investors weighing their next steps. There has not been a single event driving headlines in this case. The recent rally appears to be more about shifting investor sentiment and renewed confidence in Airbus’s ability to grow earnings. When a stock climbs without a clear external trigger, it is often a reflection of broader optimism or evolving perspectives on the company’s future prospects. As a result, the conversation has turned to whether the current price reflects real value or just momentum.

This comes after a year where Airbus has steadily built upward momentum, delivering a nearly 50% return over the past 12 months and more than doubling since 2021. Short-term performance also stands out, with close to 10% gains in just the past month. Positive revenue and net income growth have reinforced this trend, even as the sector remains influenced by cyclical forces and shifting demand for large-scale capital goods.

With that strong run behind it, the key question is whether Airbus still offers untapped value or if the market has already priced in the company’s growth story. Is this a buying opportunity or has the easy upside already been claimed?

Most Popular Narrative: 2% Undervalued

The most widely-followed narrative sees Airbus shares as modestly undervalued, supported by strong sector tailwinds and a robust future for both earnings and revenue growth.

Rising global demand, sustainability focus, and airline fleet modernization drive strong aircraft sales, margin expansion, and long-term backlog growth. Diversified growth in defense, space, and aftermarket services enhances earnings potential and operational efficiency through ongoing strategic investments.

What if the secret to Airbus’s current price is a set of bold forecasts that few would dare to repeat? One deep-dive valuation model suggests the company’s path to fair value hinges on an ambitious level of performance across several critical metrics. Are you ready to uncover the detailed financial assumptions that analysts say underpin the target price?

Result: Fair Value of €200.26 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent supply chain bottlenecks and delays in crucial supplier acquisitions could quickly undermine Airbus’s growth story if these issues remain unresolved.

Find out about the key risks to this Airbus narrative.

Another View: The SWS DCF Model

Looking at Airbus through the SWS DCF model, the story shifts. This valuation method focuses on cash flows and indicates the shares are undervalued. However, does this approach capture the whole picture or is it too optimistic?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Airbus for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own Airbus Narrative

If you have a different perspective or want to dig into the details yourself, it is quick and easy to build a personal view backed by data. Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Airbus.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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