Finnair Oyj (HEL:FIA1S) First-Quarter Results Just Came Out: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

Finnair Oyj (HEL:FIA1S) missed earnings with its latest quarterly results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. Revenues missed expectations somewhat, coming in at €682m and leading to a corresponding blowout in statutory losses. The loss per share was €0.15, some 20% larger than the analysts forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Finnair Oyj

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Finnair Oyj from four analysts is for revenues of €3.18b in 2024. If met, it would imply a modest 6.5% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to tumble 50% to €0.45 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €3.21b and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.34 in 2024. There was no real change to the revenue estimates, but the analysts do seem more bullish on earnings, given the great increase in earnings per share expectations following these results.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of €3.84, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Finnair Oyj analyst has a price target of €4.10 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €3.50. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Finnair Oyj's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 8.8% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 1.2% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 6.8% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Finnair Oyj is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Finnair Oyj following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €3.84, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Finnair Oyj going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 4 warning signs for Finnair Oyj (3 are a bit unpleasant!) that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.