Stock Analysis

Nokia Oyj's (HEL:NOKIA) underlying earnings growth outpaced the stellar return generated for shareholders over the past three years

HLSE:NOKIA
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By buying an index fund, you can roughly match the market return with ease. But if you choose individual stocks with prowess, you can make superior returns. For example, the Nokia Oyj (HEL:NOKIA) share price is up 99% in the last three years, clearly besting the market return of around 38% (not including dividends).

Since the long term performance has been good but there's been a recent pullback of 3.6%, let's check if the fundamentals match the share price.

View our latest analysis for Nokia Oyj

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During three years of share price growth, Nokia Oyj achieved compound earnings per share growth of 570% per year. The average annual share price increase of 26% is actually lower than the EPS growth. So it seems investors have become more cautious about the company, over time. This cautious sentiment is reflected in its (fairly low) P/E ratio of 5.83.

You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growth
HLSE:NOKIA Earnings Per Share Growth March 14th 2023

We know that Nokia Oyj has improved its bottom line over the last three years, but what does the future have in store? It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on how its financial position has changed over time.

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What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Nokia Oyj the TSR over the last 3 years was 103%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

While the broader market gained around 1.5% in the last year, Nokia Oyj shareholders lost 4.3% (even including dividends). However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 0.3% per year over half a decade. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For example, we've discovered 4 warning signs for Nokia Oyj (2 are concerning!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

But note: Nokia Oyj may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on FI exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if Nokia Oyj might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.