Housing and Development Bank- Egypt (S.A.E) Valuation

Is HDBK undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HDBK when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: HDBK (EGP53) is trading below our estimate of fair value (EGP77.73)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HDBK is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HDBK?

Key metric: As HDBK is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for HDBK. This is calculated by dividing HDBK's market cap by their current earnings.
What is HDBK's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	2.5x
Earnings	ج.م11.19b
Market Cap	ج.م28.16b

HDBK key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	n/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	n/a
PEG Ratio	-0.5x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does HDBK's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for HDBK vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	3.4x
CIEB Credit Agricole - Egypt Bank (S.A.E.)	3.6x	4.2%	ج.م27.1b
ADIB Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank - Egypt -E	3.2x	1.1%	ج.م25.4b
FAITA Faisal Islamic Bank of Egypt	3.8x	n/a	US$588.5m
CANA Suez Canal Bank (S.A.E)	2.8x	n/a	ج.م10.9b
HDBK Housing and Development Bank- Egypt (S.A.E)	2.5x	-5.4%	ج.م28.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: HDBK is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (2.5x) compared to the peer average (3.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does HDBK's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the African Banks Industry?

6 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

6 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: HDBK is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (2.5x) compared to the African Banks industry average (5.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HDBK's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HDBK PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	2.5x
Fair PE Ratio	3.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: HDBK is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (2.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst HDBK forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	ج.م53.00	ج.م65.81 +24.2%	11.1%	ج.م75.00	ج.م52.60	n/a	6
Nov ’25	ج.م45.21	ج.م63.97 +41.5%	10.3%	ج.م70.40	ج.م52.60	n/a	5
Oct ’25	ج.م47.02	ج.م63.97 +36.0%	10.3%	ج.م70.40	ج.م52.60	n/a	5
Sep ’25	ج.م47.60	ج.م63.97 +34.4%	10.3%	ج.م70.40	ج.م52.60	n/a	5
Aug ’25	ج.م45.70	ج.م61.17 +33.8%	13.2%	ج.م70.40	ج.م51.60	n/a	5
Jul ’25	ج.م44.12	ج.م59.80 +35.5%	13.2%	ج.م70.00	ج.م51.60	n/a	4
Jun ’25	ج.م43.04	ج.م59.80 +38.9%	13.2%	ج.م70.00	ج.م51.60	n/a	4
May ’25	ج.م41.98	ج.م54.66 +30.2%	23.5%	ج.م70.00	ج.م33.00	n/a	5
Apr ’25	ج.م47.68	ج.م48.66 +2.1%	23.0%	ج.م65.00	ج.م33.00	n/a	5
Mar ’25	ج.م55.01	ج.م48.66 -11.5%	23.0%	ج.م65.00	ج.م33.00	n/a	5
Feb ’25	ج.م47.00	ج.م35.75 -23.9%	39.2%	ج.م54.50	ج.م15.50	n/a	4
Jan ’25	ج.م38.82	ج.م35.75 -7.9%	39.2%	ج.م54.50	ج.م15.50	n/a	4
Dec ’24	ج.م39.09	ج.م35.75 -8.5%	39.2%	ج.م54.50	ج.م15.50	n/a	4
Nov ’24	ج.م33.92	ج.م35.75 +5.4%	39.2%	ج.م54.50	ج.م15.50	ج.م45.21	4
Oct ’24	ج.م25.62	ج.م25.12 -1.9%	36.5%	ج.م40.00	ج.م15.50	ج.م47.02	4
Sep ’24	ج.م26.51	ج.م19.47 -26.5%	17.5%	ج.م24.49	ج.م15.50	ج.م47.60	4
Aug ’24	ج.م19.72	ج.م19.47 -1.3%	17.5%	ج.م24.49	ج.م15.50	ج.م45.70	4
Jul ’24	ج.م20.48	ج.م19.47 -4.9%	17.5%	ج.م24.49	ج.م15.50	ج.م44.12	4
Jun ’24	ج.م19.22	ج.م19.47 +1.3%	17.5%	ج.م24.49	ج.م15.50	ج.م43.04	4
May ’24	ج.م17.55	ج.م19.47 +11.0%	17.5%	ج.م24.49	ج.م15.50	ج.م41.98	4
Apr ’24	ج.م18.34	ج.م19.75 +7.7%	19.3%	ج.م25.60	ج.م15.50	ج.م47.68	4
Mar ’24	ج.م21.60	ج.م19.75 -8.6%	19.3%	ج.م25.60	ج.م15.50	ج.م55.01	4
Feb ’24	ج.م20.37	ج.م20.53 +0.8%	20.1%	ج.م25.60	ج.م15.50	ج.م47.00	3
Jan ’24	ج.م17.02	ج.م18.39 +8.1%	28.0%	ج.م25.60	ج.م11.97	ج.م38.82	4
Dec ’23	ج.م13.96	ج.م15.46 +10.8%	16.0%	ج.م18.96	ج.م11.97	ج.م39.09	4
Nov ’23	ج.م11.29	ج.م15.47 +37.1%	16.0%	ج.م18.96	ج.م11.97	ج.م33.92	4

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.