Credit Agricole - Egypt Bank (S.A.E.) Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of CIEB when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

CIEB (EGP21.7) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (EGP30.83)

Is CIEB undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CIEB when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: CIEB (EGP21.7) is trading below our estimate of fair value (EGP30.83)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CIEB is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CIEB?

Key metric: As CIEB is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for CIEB. This is calculated by dividing CIEB's market cap by their current earnings.
What is CIEB's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	3.6x
Earnings	ج.م7.44b
Market Cap	ج.م27.13b

CIEB key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	n/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	n/a
PEG Ratio	0.9x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does CIEB's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for CIEB vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	3.1x
HDBK Housing and Development Bank- Egypt (S.A.E)	2.5x	-5.4%	ج.م28.2b
ADIB Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank - Egypt -E	3.2x	1.1%	ج.م25.4b
FAITA Faisal Islamic Bank of Egypt	3.8x	n/a	US$588.5m
CANA Suez Canal Bank (S.A.E)	2.8x	n/a	ج.م10.9b
CIEB Credit Agricole - Egypt Bank (S.A.E.)	3.6x	4.2%	ج.م27.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: CIEB is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.6x) compared to the peer average (3.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does CIEB's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the African Banks Industry?

6 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

6 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: CIEB is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.6x) compared to the African Banks industry average (5.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CIEB's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CIEB PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	3.6x
Fair PE Ratio	3.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: CIEB is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst CIEB forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	ج.م21.70	ج.م31.35 +44.5%	13.3%	ج.م38.20	ج.م25.30	n/a	7
Nov ’25	ج.م20.62	ج.م29.21 +41.7%	9.2%	ج.م32.55	ج.م25.30	n/a	5
Oct ’25	ج.م20.62	ج.م29.21 +41.7%	9.2%	ج.م32.55	ج.م25.30	n/a	5
Sep ’25	ج.م20.00	ج.م30.21 +51.0%	11.0%	ج.م35.20	ج.م25.30	n/a	6
Aug ’25	ج.م20.31	ج.م30.21 +48.7%	11.0%	ج.م35.20	ج.م25.30	n/a	6
Jul ’25	ج.م18.98	ج.م29.74 +56.7%	11.6%	ج.م35.20	ج.م25.30	n/a	5
Jun ’25	ج.م18.94	ج.م29.74 +57.0%	11.6%	ج.م35.20	ج.م25.30	n/a	5
May ’25	ج.م18.49	ج.م26.47 +43.1%	25.7%	ج.م35.20	ج.م16.00	n/a	6
Apr ’25	ج.م20.35	ج.م24.72 +21.5%	27.3%	ج.م35.20	ج.م16.00	n/a	6
Mar ’25	ج.م23.33	ج.م24.72 +5.9%	27.3%	ج.م35.20	ج.م16.00	n/a	6
Feb ’25	ج.م24.80	ج.م22.62 -8.8%	21.5%	ج.م32.20	ج.م16.00	n/a	6
Jan ’25	ج.م22.00	ج.م21.80 -0.9%	22.6%	ج.م32.20	ج.م16.00	n/a	7
Dec ’24	ج.م20.99	ج.م20.76 -1.1%	25.5%	ج.م32.20	ج.م15.80	n/a	7
Nov ’24	ج.م18.49	ج.م18.35 -0.8%	12.0%	ج.م21.30	ج.م15.80	ج.م20.62	6
Oct ’24	ج.م15.26	ج.م17.70 +16.0%	10.0%	ج.م20.50	ج.م15.80	ج.م20.62	6
Sep ’24	ج.م15.42	ج.م16.20 +5.0%	15.1%	ج.م19.60	ج.م11.50	ج.م20.00	6
Aug ’24	ج.م13.90	ج.م14.08 +1.3%	19.2%	ج.م17.37	ج.م11.30	ج.م20.31	6
Jul ’24	ج.م14.30	ج.م14.08 -1.6%	19.2%	ج.م17.37	ج.م11.30	ج.م18.98	6
Jun ’24	ج.م13.30	ج.م13.08 -1.7%	15.9%	ج.م16.00	ج.م11.30	ج.م18.94	5
May ’24	ج.م10.28	ج.م11.31 +10.0%	19.2%	ج.م15.20	ج.م9.24	ج.م18.49	5
Apr ’24	ج.م8.49	ج.م10.27 +20.9%	9.4%	ج.م11.50	ج.م9.24	ج.م20.35	5
Mar ’24	ج.م10.40	ج.م9.49 -8.8%	9.1%	ج.م11.30	ج.م8.30	ج.م23.33	8
Feb ’24	ج.م9.68	ج.م9.26 -4.4%	6.2%	ج.م10.00	ج.م8.30	ج.م24.80	7
Jan ’24	ج.م8.46	ج.م9.26 +9.5%	5.8%	ج.م10.00	ج.م8.30	ج.م22.00	8
Dec ’23	ج.م8.48	ج.م9.26 +9.2%	5.8%	ج.م10.00	ج.م8.30	ج.م20.99	8
Nov ’23	ج.م7.13	ج.م9.25 +29.7%	5.6%	ج.م9.95	ج.م8.30	ج.م18.49	8

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.