DHL Group (XTRA:DHL): How Resumed US Parcel Shipments Shape the Stock’s Valuation Outlook

If you’ve been watching Deutsche Post (XTRA:DHL) lately, the buzz is all about DHL’s decision to resume standard business parcel shipments to the United States. After a four-week pause prompted by new U.S. customs rules on low-value packages, DHL will begin shipping again, though now with extra steps for customs clearance and potentially higher costs for business customers. For any investor weighing the stock, this move is meaningful as it signals not just operational adaptability but also the chance for revenue streams to normalize, even as the landscape for cross-border logistics just got trickier.

All of this comes after a year of mixed momentum for Deutsche Post. Shares have posted a modest 3% gain over the past twelve months, with a stronger rebound since the start of the year and a three-year total return over 42%. While steady annual revenue and net income growth reinforce the company’s resilience, periodic regulatory changes, like this one in the U.S., continue to add short-term headwinds and opportunities to the broader trendline.

After this year’s meandering performance, is the market undervaluing the long-term potential of Deutsche Post, or has it already factored in everything from new customs risks to global shipping demand?

Most Popular Narrative: 12.1% Undervalued

According to the most widely followed analyst narrative, Deutsche Post shares are currently trading at a notable discount compared to the projected fair value, suggesting upside for investors if company targets are met.

Structural growth in e-commerce remains intact, with Deutsche Post maintaining targeted investments in its eCommerce division and logistics automation. This positions the company to benefit from the continued global shift to online retail, supporting long-term revenue growth.

Unpack the blueprint for Deutsche Post's future growth. There is a central foundation behind this bullish outlook, and it is tied to a powerful industry shift and bold internal improvements. Want to find out what transformation and forward assumptions anchor this valuation? The answer might surprise you and redefine your outlook on logistics stocks.

Result: Fair Value of €42.82 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent global trade volatility and new U.S. customs regulations could still threaten Deutsche Post’s core volumes and put pressure on its projected profit recovery.

Find out about the key risks to this Deutsche Post narrative.

Another View: What Does Our DCF Say?

Taking a different approach, our SWS DCF model evaluates Deutsche Post from the perspective of its projected future cash flows. This method points in the same direction as before: undervalued. But do the underlying cash flow forecasts withstand real-world uncertainty?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Deutsche Post for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own Deutsche Post Narrative

If you see things differently or want to take your own analytical route, consider building your story using the data on hand in just a few minutes. Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Deutsche Post.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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