Deutsche Post Valuation

Is DHL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of DHL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: DHL (€35.88) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€91.26)

Significantly Below Fair Value: DHL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for DHL?

Key metric: As DHL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for DHL. This is calculated by dividing DHL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is DHL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio12.9x
Earnings€3.22b
Market Cap€41.52b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does DHL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for DHL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average19.7x
TGHN Logwin
9.8x-7.4%€691.0m
HLAG Hapag-Lloyd
19.2x-10.4%€28.1b
DSV DSV
33.1x9.7%DKK 357.6b
FDX FedEx
16.9x10.7%US$68.6b
DHL Deutsche Post
12.9x8.8%€41.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: DHL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.9x) compared to the peer average (19.8x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does DHL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Logistics Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
DHL 12.9xIndustry Avg. 13.5xNo. of Companies5PE01020304050+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: DHL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.9x) compared to the European Logistics industry average (13.5x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is DHL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

DHL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio12.9x
Fair PE Ratio19.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: DHL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.8x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst DHL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€35.88
€42.15
+17.5%
10.3%€50.00€36.00n/a17
Dec ’25€34.77
€42.41
+22.0%
10.6%€50.00€36.00n/a17
Nov ’25€37.45
€43.24
+15.4%
10.4%€50.00€36.00n/a17
Oct ’25€39.14
€43.77
+11.8%
11.1%€51.00€36.00n/a16
Sep ’25€39.20
€43.88
+11.9%
10.0%€51.00€36.00n/a15
Aug ’25€38.66
€44.88
+16.1%
7.3%€51.00€40.00n/a15
Jul ’25€38.52
€45.08
+17.0%
7.8%€52.00€40.00n/a15
Jun ’25€38.66
€45.08
+16.6%
7.8%€52.00€40.00n/a15
May ’25€39.26
€46.30
+17.9%
9.2%€55.00€40.00n/a14
Apr ’25€39.92
€45.83
+14.8%
10.8%€55.00€37.40n/a14
Mar ’25€42.55
€48.75
+14.6%
11.1%€59.00€41.00n/a15
Feb ’25€44.39
€48.28
+8.8%
11.0%€59.00€41.00n/a15
Jan ’25€44.86
€48.28
+7.6%
11.5%€62.00€41.00n/a15
Dec ’24€44.00
€46.50
+5.7%
12.7%€62.00€34.80€34.7715
Nov ’24€36.76
€47.61
+29.5%
12.2%€62.00€36.40€37.4515
Oct ’24€38.54
€48.09
+24.8%
14.1%€63.00€36.40€39.1415
Sep ’24€42.87
€49.21
+14.8%
14.2%€63.00€37.10€39.2015
Aug ’24€44.30
€48.91
+10.4%
15.0%€63.00€37.10€38.6615
Jul ’24€44.73
€48.68
+8.8%
15.4%€63.00€36.70€38.5215
Jun ’24€42.28
€48.53
+14.8%
14.9%€63.00€38.50€38.6615
May ’24€43.52
€47.67
+9.5%
14.4%€64.00€38.00€39.2615
Apr ’24€43.09
€46.31
+7.5%
18.3%€64.00€25.90€39.9216
Mar ’24€40.40
€46.09
+14.1%
20.1%€64.00€25.90€42.5516
Feb ’24€40.35
€46.96
+16.4%
18.1%€64.00€25.90€44.3916
Jan ’24€35.18
€47.75
+35.7%
19.0%€64.00€25.90€44.8617
Dec ’23€38.17
€49.16
+28.8%
19.9%€64.00€25.90€44.0017

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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