Deutsche Post AG

XTRA:DHL Stock Report

Market Cap: €52.7b

Deutsche Post Future Growth

Future criteria checks 1/6

Deutsche Post is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 5.8% and 3.4% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 6.2% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 16.8% in 3 years.

Key information

5.8%

Earnings growth rate

6.21%

EPS growth rate

Logistics earnings growth16.0%
Revenue growth rate3.4%
Future return on equity16.77%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated07 May 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Narrative Update • May 10

DHL: Tighter Airfreight Conditions And Guidance Will Support Future Earnings Resilience

Analysts trimmed the fair value estimate for Deutsche Post to €58.00, citing a slightly higher discount rate, updated assumptions for revenue growth and profit margins, and a lower future P/E multiple. This comes even as recent Street research shows a mix of higher price targets and a downgrade in rating.
Narrative Update • Apr 22

DHL: Airfreight Tailwinds And Capital Returns Will Support Fairly Valued Shares

Narrative Update: Deutsche Post (DHL Group) Analysts have lifted the price target for Deutsche Post by €2.48, with updates citing a higher fair value estimate, a slightly lower discount rate, modestly adjusted revenue growth and margin assumptions, and Street research pointing to a more supportive airfreight environment and upgraded ratings. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Deutsche Post focuses on how changes in airfreight conditions and updated price targets feed into expectations for valuation, growth and execution over the next few years.
Narrative Update • Apr 08

DHL: Airfreight Support Will Later Expose Fragile Earnings Assumptions

Analysts have lifted their price targets on Deutsche Post, with recent moves such as a €1.50 increase at one major firm and a shift to an Overweight rating from another, citing a supportive airfreight supply and demand setup and potential upside to fiscal 2026 assumptions. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates on Deutsche Post, trading as DHL Group, reflect a mix of optimism around specific business drivers and caution around execution and growth risks.
Narrative Update • Mar 24

DHL: Airfreight Tailwind Will Mask Fragile Earnings And Rich Pricing

Narrative Update on Deutsche Post (DHL Group) Analysts lifted the fair value estimate for Deutsche Post from €34.00 to €38.00, citing a more supportive airfreight supply and demand backdrop and potential upside to medium term earnings that has also fed through to a higher assumed future P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Recent research reflects a split view on DHL Group, with some analysts highlighting supportive airfreight conditions and others dialing back expectations and ratings.
Narrative Update • Mar 10

DHL: Tighter Airfreight Conditions Will Support Future Earnings Resilience

Analysts have lifted their price target for Deutsche Post to €59.09 from €56.22, citing updated views on fair value, revenue growth, profit margins and P/E assumptions, as well as recent research highlighting potential benefits from tighter airfreight supply and demand conditions. Analyst Commentary Recent research has sharpened the bullish case around Deutsche Post, with some price targets moving higher and pointing to what bullish analysts see as a more supportive backdrop for execution and earnings quality.
Narrative Update • Feb 23

DHL: Cost Execution And Seasonal Trends Will Support Fairly Valued Shares

Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for Deutsche Post slightly higher from about €45.24 to roughly €45.79. This reflects updated views on discount rates, modest revenue growth assumptions, and a broadly steady profit margin outlook, informed in part by recent mixed research that includes cost execution improvements and peak season trends.
Narrative Update • Feb 09

DHL: Cost Execution And Defensive Segments Will Steady Rerated Share Outlook

Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for Deutsche Post higher to €45.24 from €44.84, reflecting recent price target increases from several firms and a shift in focus toward cost execution, steadying peak season trends, and a slightly higher assumed future P/E multiple despite mixed rating changes. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts highlight better cost execution, which they see as supporting earnings resilience and justifying higher price targets such as €42.50 and €47.
Narrative Update • Jan 25

DHL: Cost Discipline And Defensive Divisions Will Support Future Earnings Resilience

Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for Deutsche Post slightly lower to €56.22 from €56.65, reflecting a modest reset in price targets after mixed research moves that highlight better cost execution and seasonal improvement on one hand, and concerns about limited incremental upside after strong rerating on the other. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Deutsche Post, which operates as DHL Group, shows a split tape, with some firms trimming ratings after a strong rerating and others highlighting improving execution and seasonal trends.
Narrative Update • Jan 09

DHL: Cost Execution And Peak Season Recovery Will Support Earnings Quality

Analysts have lifted their fair value estimate for Deutsche Post to €56.65 from €55.18, reflecting updated views on cost execution, sequential peak season trends, and revised revenue growth, margin, and future P/E assumptions following recent research moves on DHL Group. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on DHL Group points to a more balanced but still constructive stance on Deutsche Post, with several bullish analysts highlighting improved execution and refined expectations around earnings quality and valuation.
Analysis Article • Jan 05

Deutsche Post's (ETR:DHL) Returns On Capital Are Heading Higher

If you're looking for a multi-bagger, there's a few things to keep an eye out for. Typically, we'll want to notice a...
Narrative Update • Dec 26

DHL: Cost Execution And Defensive Segments Will Support Balanced Near-Term Outlook

The analyst price target for Deutsche Post has edged higher to EUR 44.84 from EUR 44.66, as analysts point to improving cost execution, sequentially better peak season trends and resilient earnings from more defensive segments, even as some see limited incremental upside after the recent rerating. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates on Deutsche Post highlight a mixed but generally constructive view, with price targets edging higher and ratings converging towards a more balanced stance after a period of strong share price performance.
Narrative Update • Dec 12

DHL: Cost Discipline And Defensive Segments Will Support Balanced Earnings Outlook

Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for Deutsche Post DHL Group slightly higher to EUR 44.66 from EUR 43.81. This reflects a modest rerating as they point to improving cost execution, resilient defensive segments and early signs of peak season strength despite cautious views on incremental upside.
Analysis Article • Dec 10

Deutsche Post AG (ETR:DHL) Looks Inexpensive But Perhaps Not Attractive Enough

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 14.5x Deutsche Post AG ( ETR:DHL ) may be sending bullish signals at the...
Narrative Update • Nov 27

DHL: Operational Efficiencies And Balance Sheet Strength Will Support Earnings Resilience

Deutsche Post’s analyst fair value target increased modestly from €43.25 to €43.81, as analysts cited improved cost efficiency and incremental earnings resilience in recent research updates. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts have increased fair value targets for Deutsche Post, with several raising their estimates due to demonstrated progress in cost control and execution.
Analysis Article • Nov 27

Are Investors Undervaluing Deutsche Post AG (ETR:DHL) By 47%?

Key Insights Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Deutsche Post fair value estimate is €85.04 Deutsche Post's...
Analysis Article • Nov 14

Solid Earnings May Not Tell The Whole Story For Deutsche Post (ETR:DHL)

The market for Deutsche Post AG's ( ETR:DHL ) stock was strong after it released a healthy earnings report last week...
Narrative Update • Nov 12

DHL: Revenue Gains And Margin Outlook Will Balance Competitive Risks Ahead

Deutsche Post's analyst price target has slightly increased to €43.25, with analysts citing strengthened revenue growth expectations and a modest improvement in profit margin outlook, even as some peer price targets have been reduced. Analyst Commentary Recent analyst activity regarding Deutsche Post reflects a mix of positive expectations and caution, influencing the latest price targets and recommendations.
Narrative Update • Sep 23

E-commerce And Global Trade Trends Will Unlock Future Market Potential

Deutsche Post's consensus price target was modestly reduced to €42.82 as analysts grew more cautious on near-term earnings and shipping volatility, particularly after soft Q2 trends, though longer-term confidence remains from some bullish voices. Analyst Commentary Bearish analysts have lowered price targets due to concerns that DHL Group will struggle to achieve its fiscal 2025 outlook.
Analysis Article • Aug 24

The Market Doesn't Like What It Sees From Deutsche Post AG's (ETR:DHL) Earnings Yet

When close to half the companies in Germany have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") above 20x, you may consider...
Analysis Article • Jun 25

Is There Now An Opportunity In Deutsche Post AG (ETR:DHL)?

Today we're going to take a look at the well-established Deutsche Post AG ( ETR:DHL ). The company's stock saw a...
Analysis Article • Jun 12

Is Deutsche Post (ETR:DHL) A Risky Investment?

Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that...
Analysis Article • May 30

Are Investors Undervaluing Deutsche Post AG (ETR:DHL) By 47%?

Key Insights Deutsche Post's estimated fair value is €73.22 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Deutsche Post's...
Analysis Article • May 16

There's Been No Shortage Of Growth Recently For Deutsche Post's (ETR:DHL) Returns On Capital

If you're not sure where to start when looking for the next multi-bagger, there are a few key trends you should keep an...
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New Narrative • Nov 07

E-commerce Expansion And Innovative Strategies Propel Growth Amidst Global Challenges

Deutsche Post anticipates growth in e-commerce and parcel segments, driven by last-mile delivery volume increases and effective yield management strategies.

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

XTRA:DHL - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (EUR Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/202890,7384,2073,8159,89512
12/31/202787,8343,9673,5479,64216
12/31/202684,8683,6723,3469,00216
3/31/202683,0443,5276,8409,620N/A
12/31/202583,4333,5016,3249,119N/A
9/30/202583,7693,5386,7219,567N/A
6/30/202584,2333,4496,1368,998N/A
3/31/202585,0513,3786,0318,899N/A
12/31/202484,7713,3325,7868,722N/A
9/30/202483,3633,2145,2648,135N/A
6/30/202482,1693,2705,5508,626N/A
3/31/202481,6403,5045,5758,864N/A
12/31/202382,2913,6755,8779,258N/A
9/30/202384,5264,0315,9139,868N/A
6/30/202389,1664,4446,77210,799N/A
3/31/202393,1334,9196,95210,934N/A
12/31/202294,7765,3597,05310,965N/A
9/30/202294,3395,5086,63010,491N/A
6/30/202290,3375,3755,8819,675N/A
3/31/202285,8175,2146,1589,929N/A
12/31/202182,0485,0536,2579,993N/A
9/30/202177,8404,8716,75610,295N/A
6/30/202174,0264,6356,73610,031N/A
3/31/202170,4993,8686,4109,439N/A
12/31/202067,0942,9794,7777,699N/A
9/30/202064,8262,5354,8487,444N/A
6/30/202064,1562,2454,1236,928N/A
3/31/202063,7062,1782,9726,547N/A
12/31/201963,5882,623N/A6,049N/A
9/30/201963,2722,578N/A6,038N/A
6/30/201962,5692,163N/A5,590N/A
3/31/201962,4422,221N/A5,680N/A
12/31/201861,7692,075N/A5,796N/A
9/30/201860,8142,099N/A4,671N/A
6/30/201860,6042,594N/A4,204N/A
3/31/201860,3912,680N/A3,575N/A
12/31/201760,6522,713N/A3,297N/A
9/30/201760,3022,717N/A3,695N/A
6/30/201759,5252,694N/A3,628N/A
3/31/201758,8592,633N/A2,741N/A
12/31/201657,8042,639N/A2,439N/A
9/30/201657,6852,468N/A2,821N/A
6/30/201658,2471,899N/A2,726N/A
3/31/201658,7581,684N/A3,153N/A
12/31/201559,6811,540N/A3,444N/A
9/30/201559,7261,510N/A2,796N/A
6/30/201559,3031,929N/A2,818N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: DHL's forecast earnings growth (5.8% per year) is above the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: DHL's earnings (5.8% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the German market (16.9% per year).

High Growth Earnings: DHL's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: DHL's revenue (3.4% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the German market (6.5% per year).

High Growth Revenue: DHL's revenue (3.4% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: DHL's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (16.8%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/12 18:02
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/12 00:00
Earnings2026/03/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Deutsche Post AG is covered by 39 analysts. 16 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Arancha PiñeiroBanco de Sabadell. S.A.
Susanna InvernizziBarclays
Marco LimiteBarclays