Why Deutsche Post AG (ETR:DHL) Could Be Worth Watching

Let's talk about the popular Deutsche Post AG (ETR:DHL). The company's shares saw significant share price movement during recent months on the XTRA, rising to highs of €45.36 and falling to the lows of €38.45. Some share price movements can give investors a better opportunity to enter into the stock, and potentially buy at a lower price. A question to answer is whether Deutsche Post's current trading price of €39.03 reflective of the actual value of the large-cap? Or is it currently undervalued, providing us with the opportunity to buy? Let’s take a look at Deutsche Post’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if there are any catalysts for a price change.

View our latest analysis for Deutsche Post

Is Deutsche Post Still Cheap?

According to our price multiple model, which makes a comparison between the company's price-to-earnings ratio and the industry average, the stock price seems to be justfied. In this instance, we’ve used the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio given that there is not enough information to reliably forecast the stock’s cash flows. We find that Deutsche Post’s ratio of 12.42x is trading slightly below its industry peers’ ratio of 14.44x, which means if you buy Deutsche Post today, you’d be paying a decent price for it. And if you believe that Deutsche Post should be trading at this level in the long run, then there’s not much of an upside to gain over and above other industry peers. So, is there another chance to buy low in the future? Given that Deutsche Post’s share is fairly volatile (i.e. its price movements are magnified relative to the rest of the market) this could mean the price can sink lower, giving us an opportunity to buy later on. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for share price volatility.

Can we expect growth from Deutsche Post?

Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. With profit expected to grow by 22% over the next couple of years, the future seems bright for Deutsche Post. It looks like higher cash flow is on the cards for the stock, which should feed into a higher share valuation.

What This Means For You

Are you a shareholder? DHL’s optimistic future growth appears to have been factored into the current share price, with shares trading around industry price multiples. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the track record of its management team. Have these factors changed since the last time you looked at DHL? Will you have enough conviction to buy should the price fluctuate below the industry PE ratio?

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on DHL, now may not be the most advantageous time to buy, given it is trading around industry price multiples. However, the positive outlook is encouraging for DHL, which means it’s worth diving deeper into other factors such as the strength of its balance sheet, in order to take advantage of the next price drop.

It can be quite valuable to consider what analysts expect for Deutsche Post from their most recent forecasts. So feel free to check out our free graph representing analyst forecasts.

If you are no longer interested in Deutsche Post, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.