Deutsche Post AG Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

Deutsche Post AG (ETR:DHL) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 7.7% to €34.47 in the week after its latest quarterly results. Deutsche Post beat revenue expectations by 2.4%, at €21b. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in at €0.63, some 6.3% short of analyst estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Deutsche Post

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Deutsche Post from 13 analysts is for revenues of €86.9b in 2025. If met, it would imply a satisfactory 2.1% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to swell 17% to €3.25. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €87.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of €3.32 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of €42.79, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Deutsche Post at €50.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €36.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Deutsche Post's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 1.7% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 7.1% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 2.8% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Deutsche Post is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €42.79, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Deutsche Post. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Deutsche Post going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for Deutsche Post that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.