Deutsche Post AG (ETR:DHL) Just Released Its Interim Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Estimates

Shareholders might have noticed that Deutsche Post AG (ETR:DHL) filed its interim result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 8.4% to €37.07 in the past week. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of €21b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 4.2% to hit €0.63 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Deutsche Post

After the latest results, the eleven analysts covering Deutsche Post are now predicting revenues of €84.2b in 2024. If met, this would reflect a reasonable 2.6% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to accumulate 3.0% to €2.89. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €83.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of €2.92 in 2024. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of €44.82, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Deutsche Post analyst has a price target of €51.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €40.00. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Deutsche Post is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Deutsche Post's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 5.3% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 7.8% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 3.0% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Deutsche Post is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €44.82, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Deutsche Post. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Deutsche Post going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

It might also be worth considering whether Deutsche Post's debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com