While shareholders of Symrise (ETR:SY1) are in the red over the last year, underlying earnings have actually grown
It's easy to match the overall market return by buying an index fund. While individual stocks can be big winners, plenty more fail to generate satisfactory returns. Investors in Symrise AG (ETR:SY1) have tasted that bitter downside in the last year, as the share price dropped 31%. That's disappointing when you consider the market returned 16%. At least the damage isn't so bad if you look at the last three years, since the stock is down 23% in that time. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 11% in the last 90 days.
While the last year has been tough for Symrise shareholders, this past week has shown signs of promise. So let's look at the longer term fundamentals and see if they've been the driver of the negative returns.
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
Even though the Symrise share price is down over the year, its EPS actually improved. It's quite possible that growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.
It's fair to say that the share price does not seem to be reflecting the EPS growth. So it's easy to justify a look at some other metrics.
With a low yield of 1.5% we doubt that the dividend influences the share price much. Revenue was pretty flat on last year, which isn't too bad. However, it is certainly possible the market was expecting an uptick in revenue, and that the share price fall reflects that disappointment.
The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
Symrise is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. Given we have quite a good number of analyst forecasts, it might be well worth checking out this free chart depicting consensus estimates.
A Different Perspective
While the broader market gained around 16% in the last year, Symrise shareholders lost 31% (even including dividends). However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 5% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Symrise that you should be aware of.
We will like Symrise better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of undervalued stocks (mostly small caps) with considerable, recent, insider buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on German exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About XTRA:SY1
Symrise
Operates as a supplier of fragrances, flavorings, cosmetic base materials and active ingredients, and functional ingredients and solutions in Europe, Africa, the Middle East, North America, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America.
Solid track record with excellent balance sheet and pays a dividend.
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