Investors more bullish on K+S (ETR:SDF) this week as stock advances 3.8%, despite earnings trending downwards over past five years

Generally speaking the aim of active stock picking is to find companies that provide returns that are superior to the market average. And while active stock picking involves risks (and requires diversification) it can also provide excess returns. For example, the K+S Aktiengesellschaft (ETR:SDF) share price is up 88% in the last 5 years, clearly besting the market return of around 19% (ignoring dividends). However, more recent returns haven't been as impressive as that, with the stock returning just 9.6% in the last year, including dividends.

Since it's been a strong week for K+S shareholders, let's have a look at trend of the longer term fundamentals.

View our latest analysis for K+S

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

K+S' earnings per share are down 26% per year, despite strong share price performance over five years.

Essentially, it doesn't seem likely that investors are focused on EPS. Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

We note that the dividend is higher than it was previously - always nice to see. Maybe dividend investors have helped support the share price. We'd posit that the revenue growth over the last five years, of 14% per year, would encourage people to invest.

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

K+S is a well known stock, with plenty of analyst coverage, suggesting some visibility into future growth. You can see what analysts are predicting for K+S in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of K+S, it has a TSR of 113% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

K+S shareholders are up 9.6% for the year (even including dividends). But that return falls short of the market. If we look back over five years, the returns are even better, coming in at 16% per year for five years. It may well be that this is a business worth popping on the watching, given the continuing positive reception, over time, from the market. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for K+S (1 is potentially serious) that you should be aware of.

We will like K+S better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of undervalued stocks (mostly small caps) with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on German exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.