K+S (XTRA:SDF) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of SDF when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

SDF (€21.74) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (€59.25)

SDF fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	5/6
Future Growth	0/6
Past Performance	3/6
Financial Health	5/6
Dividends	1/6

SDF Stock Overview

K+S Aktiengesellschaft, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a supplier of mineral products for the agricultural, industrial, consumer, and community segments worldwide.

Rewards

Trading at 63.3% below our estimate of its fair value

Became profitable this year

Risk Analysis

Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 33% per year for the next 3 years

High level of non-cash earnings

K+S Competitors

Fuchs Petrolub

XTRA:FPE1

€3.5b

LANXESS

XTRA:LXS

€3.0b

Covestro

XTRA:1COV

€6.2b

Wacker Chemie

XTRA:WCH

€6.7b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for K+S
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	€21.74
52 Week High	€36.45
52 Week Low	€10.92
Beta	1.15
1 Month Change	-17.96%
3 Month Change	-22.66%
1 Year Change	77.83%
3 Year Change	32.04%
5 Year Change	-5.48%
Change since IPO	1,163.69%

Recent News & Updates

May 13

Analysts Are Betting On K+S Aktiengesellschaft (ETR:SDF) With A Big Upgrade This Week

K+S Aktiengesellschaft ( ETR:SDF ) shareholders will have a reason to smile today, with the analysts making substantial...

Shareholder Returns

	SDF	DE Chemicals	DE Market
7D	-5.8%	-2.8%	-2.5%
1Y	77.8%	-29.1%	-23.9%

Return vs Industry: SDF exceeded the German Chemicals industry which returned -28.9% over the past year.

Return vs Market: SDF exceeded the German Market which returned -23.8% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is SDF's price volatile compared to industry and market?
SDF volatility
SDF Average Weekly Movement	6.8%
Chemicals Industry Average Movement	5.8%
Market Average Movement	5.6%
10% most volatile stocks in DE Market	10.2%
10% least volatile stocks in DE Market	2.8%

Stable Share Price: SDF is not significantly more volatile than the rest of German stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 7% a week.

Volatility Over Time: SDF's weekly volatility (7%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1889	10,772	Burkhard Lohr	https://www.kpluss.com

K+S Aktiengesellschaft, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a supplier of mineral products for the agricultural, industrial, consumer, and community segments worldwide. It operates through Agriculture, and Industry+ segments. The Agriculture segment offers potassium chloride for important crops, such as cereals, corn, rice, and soybeans; and fertilizer specialties that are used for crops for magnesium and sulfur, including rapeseed or potatoes, as well as for chloride-sensitive crops consisting of citrus fruits, grapes, or vegetables.

K+S Fundamentals Summary

How do K+S's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
SDF fundamental statistics
Market Cap	€4.16b
Earnings (TTM)	€2.27b
Revenue (TTM)	€3.69b

1.8x

P/E Ratio

1.1x

P/S Ratio

Is SDF overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
SDF income statement (TTM)
Revenue	€3.69b
Cost of Revenue	€2.81b
Gross Profit	€878.30m
Other Expenses	-€1.39b
Earnings	€2.27b

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

Aug 11, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)	11.85
Gross Margin	23.79%
Net Profit Margin	61.43%
Debt/Equity Ratio	19.7%

How did SDF perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

0.9%

Current Dividend Yield

2%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is SDF undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SDF?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for SDF. This is calculated by dividing SDF's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is SDF's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	€4.16b

SDF key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.3x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	5.6x
PEG Ratio	-0.06x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does SDF's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

SDF PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for SDF vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	9.1x
FPE1 Fuchs Petrolub	14.9x	10.0%	€3.5b
LXS LANXESS	11.6x	11.9%	€3.0b
1COV Covestro	3.8x	-1.1%	€6.2b
WCH Wacker Chemie	6.2x	-21.6%	€6.7b
SDF K+S	1.8x	-33.0%	€4.2b

Forward PE

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: SDF is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (1.8x) compared to the peer average (9.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does SDF's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Chemicals Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: SDF is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (1.8x) compared to the German Chemicals industry average (8.8x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SDF's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SDF PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	1.8x
Fair PE Ratio	6.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: SDF is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (1.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.5x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of SDF when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: SDF (€21.74) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€59.25)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SDF is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: SDF's earnings are forecast to decline next year, so we can't calculate its PEG ratio.

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Future Growth

How is K+S forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 15 analysts?

Future Growth Score

0/6

Future Growth Score 0/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

-33.0%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: SDF's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-33% per year).

Earnings vs Market: SDF's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-33% per year).

High Growth Earnings: SDF's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: SDF's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-10.5% per year).

High Growth Revenue: SDF's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-10.5% per year).

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: SDF's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (12.7%).

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Past Performance

How has K+S performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

3/6

Past Performance Score 3/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

8.4%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: SDF has a high level of non-cash earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: SDF became profitable in the past.

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: SDF's earnings have grown by 8.4% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: SDF has become profitable in the last year, making the earnings growth rate difficult to compare to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: SDF has become profitable in the last year, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Chemicals industry (40.7%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: SDF's Return on Equity (39.6%) is considered high.

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Financial Health

How is K+S's financial position?

Financial Health Score

5/6

Financial Health Score 5/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: SDF's short term assets (€2.2B) exceed its short term liabilities (€1.1B).

Long Term Liabilities: SDF's short term assets (€2.2B) do not cover its long term liabilities (€2.3B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: SDF's net debt to equity ratio (8.7%) is considered satisfactory.

Reducing Debt: SDF's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 54.1% to 19.7% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: SDF's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (38.4%).

Interest Coverage: SDF earns more interest than it pays, so coverage of interest payments is not a concern.

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is K+S current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

2/6

Dividend Score 2/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

0.92%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: SDF's dividend (0.92%) isn’t notable compared to the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the German market (1.5%).

High Dividend: SDF's dividend (0.92%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the German market (4.49%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: SDF's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: SDF's dividend payments have fallen over the past 10 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its low payout ratio (1.7%), SDF's dividend payments are thoroughly covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its high cash payout ratio (108.4%), SDF's dividend payments are not well covered by cash flows.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

4.3yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Burkhard Lohr (59 yo)

10yrs

Tenure

€2,375,100

Compensation

Dr. Burkhard Lohr has been Chairman of the Board of Executive Directors and Chief Executive Officer at K+S Aktiengesellschaft since May 12, 2017 and has been its Member of Board of Executive Directors sinc...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Burkhard's total compensation ($USD2.47M) is about average for companies of similar size in the German market ($USD2.39M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Burkhard's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: SDF's management team is considered experienced (4.3 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: SDF's board of directors are considered experienced (6.8 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/07/01 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/07/01 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31