Aurubis AG's (ETR:NDA) Stock On An Uptrend: Could Fundamentals Be Driving The Momentum?

Most readers would already be aware that Aurubis' (ETR:NDA) stock increased significantly by 23% over the past three months. We wonder if and what role the company's financials play in that price change as a company's long-term fundamentals usually dictate market outcomes. In this article, we decided to focus on Aurubis' ROE.

Return on equity or ROE is an important factor to be considered by a shareholder because it tells them how effectively their capital is being reinvested. In short, ROE shows the profit each dollar generates with respect to its shareholder investments.

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How Is ROE Calculated?

The formula for ROE is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Aurubis is:

12% = €616m ÷ €5.0b (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2025).

The 'return' is the yearly profit. One way to conceptualize this is that for each €1 of shareholders' capital it has, the company made €0.12 in profit.

See our latest analysis for Aurubis

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

Aurubis' Earnings Growth And 12% ROE

To start with, Aurubis' ROE looks acceptable. On comparing with the average industry ROE of 8.7% the company's ROE looks pretty remarkable. Despite this, Aurubis' five year net income growth was quite flat over the past five years. Based on this, we feel that there might be other reasons which haven't been discussed so far in this article that could be hampering the company's growth. Such as, the company pays out a huge portion of its earnings as dividends, or is faced with competitive pressures.

Next, on comparing with the industry net income growth, we found that the industry grew its earnings by 5.7% over the last few years.

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. What is NDA worth today? The intrinsic value infographic in our free research report helps visualize whether NDA is currently mispriced by the market.

Is Aurubis Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?

Aurubis has a low three-year median payout ratio of 16% (or a retention ratio of 84%) but the negligible earnings growth number doesn't reflect this as high growth usually follows high profit retention.

In addition, Aurubis has been paying dividends over a period of at least ten years suggesting that keeping up dividend payments is way more important to the management even if it comes at the cost of business growth. Looking at the current analyst consensus data, we can see that the company's future payout ratio is expected to rise to 21% over the next three years. Consequently, the higher expected payout ratio explains the decline in the company's expected ROE (to 5.9%) over the same period.

Summary

On the whole, we do feel that Aurubis has some positive attributes. Yet, the low earnings growth is a bit concerning, especially given that the company has a high rate of return and is reinvesting ma huge portion of its profits. By the looks of it, there could be some other factors, not necessarily in control of the business, that's preventing growth. Additionally, the latest industry analyst forecasts show that analysts expect the company's earnings to continue to shrink in the future. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.