BASF SE (ETR:BAS) Just Released Its First-Quarter Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Estimates

BASF SE (ETR:BAS) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 6.6% to €42.48 in the week after its latest quarterly results. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of €17b and statutory earnings per share of €1.45. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Following last week's earnings report, BASF's 20 analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be €65.7b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 162% to €2.17. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €66.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of €2.36 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

See our latest analysis for BASF

The consensus price target held steady at €51.50, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values BASF at €65.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €38.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that BASF's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 1.2% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 1.7% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 3.6% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that BASF is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for BASF. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €51.50, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple BASF analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - BASF has 3 warning signs (and 1 which is significant) we think you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.