BASF (XTRA:BAS) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of BAS when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

BAS (€44.16) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (€154.28)

BAS fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	5/6
Future Growth	1/6
Past Performance	4/6
Financial Health	5/6
Dividends	5/6

BAS Stock Overview

BASF SE operates as a chemical company worldwide.

Rewards

Trading at 71.4% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 0.59% per year

Earnings grew by 182.7% over the past year

Risk Analysis

Has a high level of debt

Dividend of 7.7% is not well covered by earnings

BASF Competitors

LANXESS

XTRA:LXS

€3.2b

Symrise

XTRA:SY1

€15.6b

Evonik Industries

XTRA:EVK

€9.8b

Wacker Chemie

XTRA:WCH

€7.6b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for BASF
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	€44.16
52 Week High	€69.52
52 Week Low	€39.33
Beta	1.41
1 Month Change	6.53%
3 Month Change	-10.58%
1 Year Change	-36.16%
3 Year Change	-22.33%
5 Year Change	-45.76%
Change since IPO	691.73%

Recent News & Updates

Aug 08

What Does BASF SE's (ETR:BAS) Share Price Indicate?

BASF SE ( ETR:BAS ) saw a double-digit share price rise of over 10% in the past couple of months on the XTRA. With many...

Jun 30

Returns At BASF (ETR:BAS) Appear To Be Weighed Down

If we want to find a stock that could multiply over the long term, what are the underlying trends we should look for...

Shareholder Returns

	BAS	DE Chemicals	DE Market
7D	0.3%	-1.3%	-0.2%
1Y	-36.2%	-27.7%	-20.5%

Return vs Industry: BAS underperformed the German Chemicals industry which returned -27.7% over the past year.

Return vs Market: BAS underperformed the German Market which returned -20.5% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is BAS's price volatile compared to industry and market?
BAS volatility
BAS Average Weekly Movement	5.4%
Chemicals Industry Average Movement	5.4%
Market Average Movement	5.6%
10% most volatile stocks in DE Market	10.3%
10% least volatile stocks in DE Market	2.8%

Stable Share Price: BAS is not significantly more volatile than the rest of German stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 5% a week.

Volatility Over Time: BAS's weekly volatility (5%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1865	110,725	Martin Brudermuller	https://www.basf.com

BASF SE operates as a chemical company worldwide. The company operates through six segments: Chemicals, Materials, Industrial Solutions, Surface Technologies, Nutrition & Care, and Agricultural Solutions. The Chemicals segment provides petrochemicals and intermediates.

BASF Fundamentals Summary

How do BASF's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
BAS fundamental statistics
Market Cap	€39.69b
Earnings (TTM)	€5.50b
Revenue (TTM)	€85.50b

7.2x

P/E Ratio

0.5x

P/S Ratio

Is BAS overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
BAS income statement (TTM)
Revenue	€85.50b
Cost of Revenue	€64.34b
Gross Profit	€21.16b
Other Expenses	€15.66b
Earnings	€5.50b

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

Oct 26, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)	6.12
Gross Margin	24.75%
Net Profit Margin	6.43%
Debt/Equity Ratio	51.9%

How did BAS perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

7.7%

Current Dividend Yield

56%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is BAS undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BAS?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for BAS. This is calculated by dividing BAS's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is BAS's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	€39.69b

BAS key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.7x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	5.3x
PEG Ratio	12.2x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does BAS's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

BAS PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for BAS vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	16.8x
LXS LANXESS	12.7x	14.7%	€3.2b
SY1 Symrise	38.2x	7.2%	€15.6b
EVK Evonik Industries	10.4x	5.8%	€9.8b
WCH Wacker Chemie	5.8x	-28.4%	€7.6b
BAS BASF	7.2x	0.6%	€39.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: BAS is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.2x) compared to the peer average (16.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does BAS's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Chemicals Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: BAS is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.2x) compared to the German Chemicals industry average (9.3x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is BAS's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

BAS PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	7.2x
Fair PE Ratio	17.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: BAS is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.9x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of BAS when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: BAS (€44.16) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€154.28)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BAS is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Future Growth

How is BASF forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 21 analysts?

Future Growth Score

1/6

Future Growth Score 1/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

0.6%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: BAS's forecast earnings growth (0.6% per year) is above the savings rate (-0.01%).

Earnings vs Market: BAS's earnings (0.6% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the German market (8.8% per year).

High Growth Earnings: BAS's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: BAS's revenue (1.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the German market (4.7% per year).

High Growth Revenue: BAS's revenue (1.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: BAS's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (11.3%).

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Past Performance

How has BASF performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

4/6

Past Performance Score 4/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-10.4%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: BAS has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: BAS's current net profit margins (6.4%) are higher than last year (2.8%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: BAS's earnings have declined by 10.4% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: BAS's earnings growth over the past year (182.7%) exceeds its 5-year average (-10.4% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: BAS earnings growth over the past year (182.7%) exceeded the Chemicals industry 22.1%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: BAS's Return on Equity (12.8%) is considered low.

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Financial Health

How is BASF's financial position?

Financial Health Score

5/6

Financial Health Score 5/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: BAS's short term assets (€43.4B) exceed its short term liabilities (€26.6B).

Long Term Liabilities: BAS's short term assets (€43.4B) exceed its long term liabilities (€24.0B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: BAS's net debt to equity ratio (43.3%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: BAS's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 53.4% to 51.9% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: BAS's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (25.6%).

Interest Coverage: BAS's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (31.5x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is BASF current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

5/6

Dividend Score 5/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

7.70%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: BAS's dividend (7.7%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the German market (1.47%).

High Dividend: BAS's dividend (7.7%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the German market (4.51%)

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: BAS's dividends per share have been stable in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: BAS's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonable payout ratio (56.5%), BAS's dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its high cash payout ratio (129.1%), BAS's dividend payments are not well covered by cash flows.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

6.3yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Martin Brudermuller (61 yo)

16.58yrs

Tenure

€7,841,000

Compensation

Dr. Martin Brudermuller serves as Member of Supervisory Board at Mercedes-Benz Group AG (formerly known as Daimler AG) since March 31, 2021. He has been the Chairman of the Board of Executive Directors at...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Martin's total compensation ($USD8.04M) is above average for companies of similar size in the German market ($USD5.55M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Martin's compensation has increased by more than 20% in the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: BAS's management team is seasoned and experienced (6.3 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: BAS's board of directors are considered experienced (3.8 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/08/12 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/08/12 00:00
Earnings	2022/06/30
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31