Toll Brothers, Inc.

DB:TLK Stock Report

Market Cap: €12.8b

Toll Brothers Valuation

Is TLK undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Future Cash Flow Value

What is the Fair Price of TLK when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Ultimate guide to DCF valuation for stock investing

Learn how to determine fair value like the best investors in the world.

Below Future Cash Flow Value: TLK (€136.85) is trading below our estimate of future cash flow value (€204.95)

Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value: TLK is trading below future cash flow value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for TLK?

Key metric: As TLK is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for TLK. This is calculated by dividing TLK's market cap by their current earnings.
What is TLK's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio11.3x
EarningsUS$1.29b
Market CapUS$14.69b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does TLK's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for TLK vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average14.6x
ADS adidas
23.6x15.15%€32.5b
BOSS Hugo Boss
11.3x4.53%€2.6b
NVR NVR
14.6x-0.99%US$18.2b
1928 Sekisui House
8.9x3.62%JP¥2.3t
TLK Toll Brothers
11.3x5.66%€14.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: TLK is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.3x) compared to the peer average (14.6x).

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio compares a stock's price to its earnings over time. Higher ratios indicate that investors are willing to pay more for the stock.

Fetching historical data

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does TLK's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Consumer Durables Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
TLK 11.3xIndustry Avg. 13.1xNo. of Companies17PE01020304050+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: TLK is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.3x) compared to the European Consumer Durables industry average (13.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is TLK's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

TLK PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio11.3x
Fair PE Ratio14.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: TLK is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst TLK forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€136.85
€144.32
+5.46%
11.46%€163.76€100.71n/a15
Jun ’27€118.40
€140.88
+18.99%
11.35%€160.82€98.90n/a16
May ’27€118.80
€144.30
+21.46%
11.69%€168.26€97.73n/a15
Apr ’27€117.60
€150.02
+27.56%
11.51%€171.94€100.73n/a16
Mar ’27€133.20
€145.35
+9.12%
11.67%€167.71€98.25n/a15
Feb ’27€121.85
€129.73
+6.47%
11.09%€152.35€92.59n/a15
Jan ’27€116.50
€127.43
+9.38%
10.39%€154.43€93.85n/a14
Dec ’26€119.55
€129.96
+8.70%
12.67%€157.64€79.25n/a15
Nov ’26€114.75
€129.18
+12.57%
12.74%€156.83€78.84n/a15
Oct ’26€116.40
€128.62
+10.50%
12.80%€155.88€78.37n/a16
Sep ’26€117.85
€128.92
+9.39%
13.05%€157.34€79.10n/a16
Aug ’26€102.80
€122.15
+18.82%
15.51%€158.04€79.45n/a16
Jul ’26€102.55
€116.68
+13.78%
16.62%€155.22€78.03€143.0016
Jun ’26€92.42
€121.93
+31.93%
16.63%€162.10€81.49€118.4016
May ’26€87.72
€123.66
+40.97%
16.85%€161.41€81.14€118.8016
Apr ’26€96.94
€135.49
+39.77%
14.16%€169.46€93.53€117.6016
Mar ’26€106.25
€140.11
+31.87%
14.36%€174.86€96.51€133.2016
Feb ’26€134.05
€151.36
+12.91%
12.95%€182.10€109.64€121.8516
Jan ’26€123.55
€153.58
+24.30%
13.17%€184.15€103.58€116.5017
Dec ’25€160.75
€150.76
-6.21%
13.26%€180.40€103.09€119.5517
Nov ’25€134.45
€144.85
+7.74%
12.69%€167.68€100.05€114.7517
Oct ’25€139.85
€136.92
-2.10%
12.78%€162.10€96.72€116.4017
Sep ’25€129.30
€137.26
+6.16%
12.79%€163.77€97.72€117.8517
Aug ’25€131.40
€125.95
-4.15%
13.12%€165.19€98.19€102.8016
Jul ’25€104.80
€128.64
+22.75%
12.18%€164.93€99.70€102.5516
€145.38
Fair Value
5.9% undervalued intrinsic discount
15
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/07/06 06:13
End of Day Share Price 2026/07/06 00:00
Earnings2026/04/30
Annual Earnings2025/10/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Toll Brothers, Inc. is covered by 34 analysts. 14 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Christopher GrajaArgus Research Company
Stephen KimBarclays
Matthew BouleyBarclays