Does the Recent Daimler-US Market Expansion Signal a New Opportunity for Daimler Truck in 2025?

If you are holding Daimler Truck Holding stock, or thinking about starting a position, you likely want to know whether now is the moment to buy, sell, or simply wait on the sidelines. Let’s start by looking at how the stock has been moving lately. Despite nudging down by 0.4% in the last week and sliding 7.0% over the past month, shares are still up 8.5% over the past year, and an impressive 66.1% over the past three years. That kind of long-term growth really gets investors’ attention, even if the short-term momentum has cooled a bit.

Lately, the trucking industry has been catching the market's eye, with global supply chain adjustments and new technology initiatives providing fresh optimism. These developments can add to the company’s perceived growth potential and even shift risk perceptions. Investors are clearly recalibrating, as Daimler’s price fluctuations suggest some are trimming gains, while others see an opening to add shares on a well-timed dip.

But here is where it gets interesting: by the numbers, Daimler Truck Holding currently boasts a valuation score of 6 out of a possible 6, meaning it passes every check for being undervalued. Simply put, all the standard measures suggest this stock is attractively priced relative to its fundamentals.

Of course, not all valuation methods are created equal. Next, I’ll break down the main approaches investors use to assess whether Daimler Truck Holding is a bargain or something to pass on. Make sure to stick around, because we will end by looking at an even clearer way to judge if the market is getting this stock right.

Why Daimler Truck Holding is lagging behind its peers

Approach 1: Daimler Truck Holding Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model estimates a company’s value by projecting its future cash flows and discounting them back to their value today. For Daimler Truck Holding, the DCF is based on a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model, which uses both analyst estimates and long-term projections.

Currently, Daimler Truck Holding generates Free Cash Flow of approximately €1.62 billion. Over the next several years, analyst forecasts expect this figure to grow steadily, with projected Free Cash Flow reaching about €3.38 billion by 2029. After 2029, cash flows are extrapolated based on reasonable market assumptions. This results in a ten-year projection that reflects ongoing growth at a moderating pace.

Bringing these projections together, the DCF valuation estimates Daimler Truck Holding’s intrinsic value at €67.07 per share. With the stock trading at a price that makes it about 47.0% undervalued according to this model, investors may see a significant bargain opportunity at current levels.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Daimler Truck Holding.

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Daimler Truck Holding is undervalued by 47.0%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover more undervalued stocks.

Approach 2: Daimler Truck Holding Price vs Earnings

For companies with consistent profits like Daimler Truck Holding, the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is a time-tested way to gauge value. The PE ratio shows how much investors are willing to pay per euro of earnings. Generally, higher growth prospects or lower risks justify a higher PE, while slower-growing or riskier businesses tend to trade at lower multiples.

Daimler Truck Holding’s current PE ratio stands at 11.4x, which is notably below both the machinery industry average at 21.1x and the major peer average of 45.4x. This suggests that, based on earnings alone, the company looks attractively valued relative to its sector and rivals.

However, industry and peer averages can be blunt tools since they miss specifics like a company’s growth outlook, margin profile, market cap, and risk levels. That is where Simply Wall St’s “Fair Ratio” comes in. It is a proprietary measure, tailored to reflect Daimler’s own growth rates, risk, and industry standing, delivering a much more nuanced view than raw comparisons.

For Daimler Truck Holding, the Fair Ratio is 26.9x. Since this is well above the current PE ratio of 11.4x, it signals that the market is meaningfully undervaluing Daimler’s earnings strength right now.

Result: UNDERVALUED

PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Daimler Truck Holding Narrative

Earlier, we mentioned there's an even better way to understand valuation, so let's introduce you to Narratives. A Narrative is simply your story about a company: it pulls together your views on its future prospects and challenges, lets you set assumptions for things like future revenue and earnings, and then shows you what all that means for fair value today.

By linking a company's story to a financial forecast, then to a fair value estimate, Narratives help you see how the numbers reflect your own perspective, not just the market’s. They are easy to create and refine and are available right from the Community page on Simply Wall St, where millions of investors share and update their thinking as new news or results arrive.

Narratives make decision-making clearer by showing whether your Fair Value is above or below the current price, helping you judge when to buy or sell. Because they update dynamically as new information comes in, your investment thesis always stays relevant.

For Daimler Truck Holding, for example, some investors see strong upside from leadership in zero-emission trucks and set their fair value at €56.0 per share, while others focus on risk and assign a value as low as €32.0. This highlights how Narratives let you reflect your own confidence, evidence, and goals.

Do you think there's more to the story for Daimler Truck Holding? Create your own Narrative to let the Community know!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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