DEUTZ Aktiengesellschaft Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Investors in DEUTZ Aktiengesellschaft (ETR:DEZ) had a good week, as its shares rose 5.4% to close at €10.31 following the release of its quarterly results. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at €0.08, some 65% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at €585m. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for DEUTZ from six analysts is for revenues of €2.41b in 2026. If met, it would imply a decent 12% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 69% to €0.87. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €2.38b and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.80 in 2026. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

See our latest analysis for DEUTZ

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of €12.88, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on DEUTZ, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €14.00 and the most bearish at €12.00 per share. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that DEUTZ's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 25% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 4.9% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.9% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that DEUTZ is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around DEUTZ's earnings potential next year. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €12.88, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple DEUTZ analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 3 warning signs for DEUTZ (1 is a bit concerning!) that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.