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US$50.96
70.2% undervalued intrinsic discount
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INTRINSIC VALUE (DCF) CALCULATION BREAKDOWN — NASDAQ:DLO
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Target Fair Value: USD 50.96
Current Stock Price: USD 15.24
Market Assessment: 70.1% Undervalued / +234.2% Upside Potential
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1. MARKET METRICS RECONCILIATION
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* Undervaluation Formula:
(Fair Value - Current Price) / Fair Value
(50.96 - 15.24) / 50.96 = 0.7008 -> 70.1%
* Upside Potential Formula:
(Fair Value - Current Price) / Current Price
(50.96 - 15.24) / 15.24 = 2.3425 -> +234.2%
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2. DISCOUNT RATE / COST OF EQUITY (CAPM)
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* Formula: Risk-Free Rate + (Beta * Equity Risk Premium)
* Inputs: Risk-Free Rate = 4.25%
Beta = 1.10
ERP = 5.00%
* Calculation:
4.25% + (1.10 * 5.00%) = 4.25% + 5.50% = 9.75% (Rounded to 9.8%)
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3. 10-YEAR CASH FLOW FORECAST ARCHITECTURE
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* Base Year Free Cash Flow (FCF0): USD 437.59M (USD 1.4837 per share)
* Shares Outstanding: 294.93m (Market Cap 4.50B / Price 15.24)
* FCF Margin: 40.0%
* Growth Rate Fading Schedule:
- Year 1: +25.00% FCF USD 546.99M
- Years 2-10: Linear reduction from +25.00% down to +2.50%
- Year 10: +2.50% FCF USD 1.56B
- Year 11+: +2.50% (Terminal Perpetual Growth Rate)
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4. MATHEMATICAL STEPS TO INTRINSIC VALUE
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* Step A: Present Value of Discrete Cash Flows (Years 1 to 10)
PV_Cash_Flows = Sum [ FCF_t / (1 + 0.0975)^t ] for t = 1 to 10
PV_Cash_Flows = USD 6.35B
* Step B: Terminal Value (Gordon Growth Model at Year 10)
TV_10 = [ FCF_10 * (1 + 0.0250) ] / (0.0975 - 0.0250)
TV_10 = [ 1.56B * 1.0250 ] / 0.0725 = USD 21.99B
* Step C: Discount the Terminal Value to Present Day
PV_TV = 21.99B / (1 + 0.0975)^10 = 21.99B / 2.5354
PV_TV = USD 8.67B
* Step D: Equity Value and Fair Value per Share
Equity Value = 6.35B + 8.67B = USD 15.03B
Fair Value = 15.03B / 294.93m = USD 50.96
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5. FUTURE P/E MULTIPLE BLENDED BENCHMARK
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* Formula: Sum of (Multiple * Re-normalized Weight)
* Inputs: Forward Multiple: 17.1x @ 45% Weight
Peer Median (n=31): 20.2x @ 35% Weight
Current Multiple: 22.7x @ 20% Weight
* Calculation:
(17.1 * 0.45) + (20.2 * 0.35) + (22.7 * 0.20)
= 7.684 + 7.077 + 4.540
= 19.301x (Rounded to 19.3x)
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6. SENSITIVITY OF THE FAIR VALUE
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* Growth +22.0% -> 45.47 | +25.0% -> 50.96 | +28.0% -> 50.96
* Discount 8.75% -> 60.09 | 9.75% -> 50.96 | 10.75% -> 44.07
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