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NerdWallet, Inc. Stock Price

NasdaqGM:NRDS Community·US$636.0m Market Cap
  • 4 Narratives written by author
  • 0 Comments on narratives written by author
  • 13 Fair Values set on narratives written by author

NRDS Share Price Performance

US$10.12
0.12 (1.20%)
US$44.66
Fair Value
US$10.12
0.12 (1.20%)
77.3% undervalued intrinsic discount
US$44.66
Fair Value
Price US$10.12
J_Tyrader US$44.66
AnalystConsensusTarget US$12.00
AnalystLowTarget US$8.00

NRDS Community Narratives

Fair Value
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Fair Value US$44.66 77.3% undervalued intrinsic discount

5/8/26 — NerdWallet: trading 80% below a 9.8%-discounted fair value, with the cash flow to defend it

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Fair Value US$12 15.7% undervalued intrinsic discount

Digital Finance And AI Will Unlock New Opportunities

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Fair Value US$8 26.5% overvalued intrinsic discount

AI Search Shift Will Erode Traffic And Squeeze Margins Over Time

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US$44.66
77.3% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
================================================================================ INTRINSIC VALUE (DCF) CALCULATION BREAKDOWN — NASDAQ:NRDS ================================================================================ Target Fair Value: USD 44.66 Current Stock Price: USD 9.09 Market Assessment: 79.6% Undervalued / +391.3% Upside Potential -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1. MARKET METRICS RECONCILIATION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Undervaluation Formula: (Fair Value - Current Price) / Fair Value (44.66 - 9.09) / 44.66 = 0.7964 -> 79.6% * Upside Potential Formula: (Fair Value - Current Price) / Current Price (44.66 - 9.09) / 9.09 = 3.9126 -> +391.3% -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2. DISCOUNT RATE / COST OF EQUITY (CAPM) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Formula: Risk-Free Rate + (Beta * Equity Risk Premium) * Inputs: Risk-Free Rate = 4.25% Beta = 1.10 ERP = 5.00% * Calculation: 4.25% + (1.10 * 5.00%) = 4.25% + 5.50% = 9.75% (Rounded to 9.8%) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3. 10-YEAR CASH FLOW FORECAST ARCHITECTURE -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Base Year Free Cash Flow (FCF0): USD 122.80M (USD 1.8663 per share) * Shares Outstanding: 65.80m (Market Cap 598.11M / Price 9.09) * FCF Margin: 14.5% * Growth Rate Fading Schedule: - Year 1: +15.61% FCF USD 141.97M - Years 2-10: Linear reduction from +15.61% down to +2.50% - Year 10: +2.50% FCF USD 290.01M - Year 11+: +2.50% (Terminal Perpetual Growth Rate) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4. MATHEMATICAL STEPS TO INTRINSIC VALUE -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Step A: Present Value of Discrete Cash Flows (Years 1 to 10) PV_Cash_Flows = Sum [ FCF_t / (1 + 0.0975)^t ] for t = 1 to 10 PV_Cash_Flows = USD 1.32B * Step B: Terminal Value (Gordon Growth Model at Year 10) TV_10 = [ FCF_10 * (1 + 0.0250) ] / (0.0975 - 0.0250) TV_10 = [ 290.01M * 1.0250 ] / 0.0725 = USD 4.10B * Step C: Discount the Terminal Value to Present Day PV_TV = 4.10B / (1 + 0.0975)^10 = 4.10B / 2.5354 PV_TV = USD 1.62B * Step D: Equity Value and Fair Value per Share Equity Value = 1.32B + 1.62B = USD 2.94B Fair Value = 2.94B / 65.80m = USD 44.66 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5. FUTURE P/E MULTIPLE BLENDED BENCHMARK -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Formula: Sum of (Multiple * Re-normalized Weight) * Inputs: Forward Multiple: 10.6x @ 45% Weight Peer Median (n=31): 20.2x @ 35% Weight Current Multiple: 9.8x @ 20% Weight * Calculation: (10.6 * 0.45) + (20.2 * 0.35) + (9.8 * 0.20) = 4.782 + 7.077 + 1.952 = 13.811x (Rounded to 13.8x) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 6. SENSITIVITY OF THE FAIR VALUE -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Growth +12.6% -> 39.68 | +15.6% -> 44.66 | +18.6% -> 50.19 * Discount 8.75% -> 52.34 | 9.75% -> 44.66 | 10.75% -> 38.85 ================================================================================
US$8
26.5% overvalued intrinsic discount
Revenue
6.94% p.a.
Profit Margin
6.43%
Future PE
7.71x
Price in 2029
US$9.95
US$12
15.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
Revenue
5.87% p.a.
Profit Margin
6.93%
Future PE
11.16x
Price in 2029
US$14.73

Trending Discussion

No trending discussion available.

Updated Narratives

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5/8/26 — NerdWallet: trading 80% below a 9.8%-discounted fair value, with the cash flow to defend it

Fair Value: US$44.66 77.3% undervalued intrinsic discount
1 users have set this as their fair value
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0 users have liked this narrative
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NRDS: Lower Earnings Conviction Will Drive A Harsher Market Reassessment

Fair Value: US$8 26.5% overvalued intrinsic discount
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NRDS: Reset Earnings Outlook And Buybacks Will Support Future Upside Potential

Fair Value: US$15 32.5% undervalued intrinsic discount
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Snowflake Analysis

Flawless balance sheet with proven track record.

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NerdWallet, Inc. Key Details

US$860.0m

Revenue

US$55.9m

Cost of Revenue

US$804.1m

Gross Profit

US$739.1m

Other Expenses

US$65.0m

Earnings

Last Reported Earnings
Jun 30, 2026
Next Reporting Earnings
n/a
1.02
93.50%
7.56%
1.6%
View Full Analysis

About NRDS

Founded
2009
Employees
650
CEO
Tim Chen
WebsiteView website
www.nerdwallet.com

NerdWallet, Inc. operates a digital platform that provides financial guidance to consumers and small and mid-sized businesses (SMB) in the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia, and Canada. It offers editorial and content publishing, a consumer and SMB financial education, tools, calculators, guides, and research published under the NerdWallet brand; Marketplace And Referral Services, a tool that enable users to compare, pre-qualify for, or connect with third-party providers of credit cards, consumer loans, small business loans, insurance, mortgages, financial services, and related products, as well as services including fundera, nerdwallet insurance services, nerdwallet advisory, and nerdwallet compare; and Financial Services, a brokerage and advisory services provided by insurance agency, loan and mortgage brokerages, and investment advisory subsidiaries. Additionally, the company provides finance and refinance facilities to students for education. NerdWallet, Inc. was founded in 2009 and is based in San Mateo, California.

Recent NRDS News & Updates

Seeking Alpha Aug 18

NerdWallet: A Company In Transition

Summary NerdWallet faces declining revenue growth and margin compression amid intensifying AI-driven search competition. Management is increasing marketing spend, targeting higher IRR and vertical integration, but growth remains uncertain. Q2 2026 revenue grew 6% to $197M; full-year non-GAAP operating income guidance was slightly reduced to $90–$105M. I shift to a 'Hold' rating, despite undervaluation and a strong balance sheet, as I wait for evidence of marketing ROI and growth stabilization. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update Aug 08

NRDS: Lower Earnings Conviction Will Drive A Harsher Market Reassessment

NerdWallet's updated narrative reflects a trimmed analyst price target to $8 from $9, with analysts pointing to adjustments in fair value assumptions, a slightly higher discount rate, and refined views on revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E expectations. Analyst Commentary Recent research commentary on NerdWallet highlights a more cautious tone from several firms, with a series of reduced price targets reinforcing the idea that analysts see a less generous valuation framework than before.

Recent updates

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