Concordia Financial Group, Ltd.

DB:YC3 Stock Report

Market Cap: €6.3b

Concordia Financial Group Valuation

Is YC3 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of YC3 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: YC3 (€5.3) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€8)

Significantly Below Fair Value: YC3 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for YC3?

Key metric: As YC3 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for YC3. This is calculated by dividing YC3's market cap by their current earnings.
What is YC3's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio13.7x
EarningsJP¥73.40b
Market CapJP¥1.01t

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does YC3's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for YC3 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average30.2x
CBK Commerzbank
8.5x8.8%€18.2b
UMBF UMB Financial
15.6x35.5%US$6.1b
CADE Cadence Bank
60.5x33.0%US$7.1b
GBCI Glacier Bancorp
36.2x30.9%US$6.6b
YC3 Concordia Financial Group
13.7x10.4%€1.0t

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: YC3 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.7x) compared to the peer average (30.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does YC3's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Banks Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
YC3 13.7xIndustry Avg. 7.4xNo. of Companies46PE0612182430+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: YC3 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.7x) compared to the European Banks industry average (7.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is YC3's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

YC3 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio13.7x
Fair PE Ratio11.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: YC3 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst YC3 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€5.30
€6.32
+19.2%
12.0%€8.06€5.58n/a9
Nov ’25€4.58
€5.70
+24.5%
4.7%€6.33€5.43n/a8
Oct ’25€4.84
€6.08
+25.5%
9.2%€7.02€5.06n/a8
Sep ’25€4.98
€5.75
+15.5%
10.0%€6.47€4.67n/a8
Aug ’25€5.85
€5.75
-1.7%
10.0%€6.47€4.67n/a8
Jul ’25€5.45
€5.59
+2.6%
9.8%€6.43€4.68n/a8
Jun ’25€5.45
€5.07
-7.0%
5.9%€5.64€4.75n/a8
May ’25€4.96
€5.16
+3.9%
6.0%€5.78€4.87n/a8
Apr ’25€4.54
€5.05
+11.3%
12.1%€5.89€3.72n/a8
Mar ’25€4.60
€4.71
+2.4%
10.5%€5.70€3.76n/a8
Feb ’25€4.34
€4.76
+9.8%
10.5%€5.76€3.80n/a8
Jan ’25€4.00
€4.76
+19.1%
10.5%€5.76€3.80n/a8
Dec ’24€4.22
€4.64
+10.0%
10.6%€5.64€3.72n/a8
Nov ’24€4.38
€4.65
+6.1%
12.0%€5.73€3.78€4.588
Oct ’24€4.24
€4.05
-4.4%
7.4%€4.68€3.79€4.846
Sep ’24€4.04
€4.00
-0.9%
4.4%€4.31€3.80€4.986
Aug ’24€3.96
€3.90
-1.6%
14.6%€5.01€2.93€5.857
Jul ’24€3.50
€3.90
+11.4%
14.6%€5.01€2.93€5.457
Jun ’24€3.60
€3.94
+9.4%
15.7%€5.23€3.06€5.457
May ’24€3.36
€4.05
+20.6%
15.7%€5.38€3.14€4.967
Apr ’24€3.30
€4.17
+26.4%
15.7%€5.40€3.16€4.547
Mar ’24€4.16
€4.15
-0.3%
16.5%€5.36€3.13€4.607
Feb ’24€3.88
€3.82
-1.5%
10.3%€4.25€3.19€4.346
Jan ’24€3.80
€3.70
-2.7%
8.8%€4.29€3.22€4.006
Dec ’23€3.22
€3.40
+5.7%
8.3%€3.85€3.09€4.226
Nov ’23€3.00
€3.37
+12.3%
8.2%€3.82€3.07€4.386

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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