UMB Financial Corporation

NasdaqGS:UMBF Stock Report

Market Cap: US$4.1b

UMB Financial Valuation

Is UMBF undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of UMBF when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: UMBF ($82.16) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($181.31)

Significantly Below Fair Value: UMBF is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for UMBF?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

UMBF key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenuen/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDAn/a
PEG Ratio0.5x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does UMBF's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for UMBF vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average21.8x
HWC Hancock Whitney
10.7x8.0%US$4.1b
GBCI Glacier Bancorp
22x19.4%US$4.4b
TFSL TFS Financial
46.3x-1.5%US$3.7b
COLB Columbia Banking System
8.1x7.3%US$4.1b
UMBF UMB Financial
10.9x22.7%US$4.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: UMBF is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.9x) compared to the peer average (21.8x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does UMBF's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Banks Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a9.2%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a9.2%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: UMBF is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.9x) compared to the US Banks industry average (9.9x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is UMBF's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

UMBF PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio10.9x
Fair PE Ratio14.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: UMBF is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.8x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst UMBF forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$82.16
US$95.50
+16.2%
4.4%US$102.00US$90.00n/a6
May ’25US$79.81
US$95.00
+19.0%
3.7%US$100.00US$90.00n/a6
Apr ’25US$84.56
US$92.67
+9.6%
6.7%US$102.00US$85.00n/a6
Mar ’25US$80.60
US$93.00
+15.4%
7.3%US$102.00US$85.00n/a5
Feb ’25US$83.44
US$90.40
+8.3%
10.7%US$102.00US$75.00n/a5
Jan ’25US$83.55
US$81.50
-2.5%
7.7%US$90.00US$75.00n/a5
Dec ’24US$74.65
US$74.40
-0.3%
4.4%US$80.00US$70.00n/a5
Nov ’24US$63.49
US$74.40
+17.2%
4.4%US$80.00US$70.00n/a5
Oct ’24US$62.05
US$76.80
+23.8%
3.8%US$82.00US$74.00n/a5
Sep ’24US$64.60
US$76.80
+18.9%
3.8%US$82.00US$74.00n/a5
Aug ’24US$69.48
US$76.80
+10.5%
3.8%US$82.00US$74.00n/a5
Jul ’24US$60.90
US$72.00
+18.2%
5.9%US$77.00US$66.00n/a5
Jun ’24US$58.76
US$73.00
+24.2%
7.2%US$80.00US$66.00n/a5
May ’24US$60.27
US$73.40
+21.8%
6.8%US$80.00US$66.00US$79.815
Apr ’24US$57.72
US$84.80
+46.9%
16.0%US$101.00US$65.00US$84.565
Mar ’24US$89.95
US$93.80
+4.3%
4.5%US$101.00US$89.00US$80.605
Feb ’24US$90.20
US$93.20
+3.3%
5.3%US$101.00US$87.00US$83.445
Jan ’24US$83.52
US$91.20
+9.2%
5.9%US$101.00US$86.00US$83.555
Dec ’23US$84.75
US$91.20
+7.6%
5.9%US$101.00US$86.00US$74.655
Nov ’23US$82.74
US$91.20
+10.2%
5.9%US$101.00US$86.00US$63.495
Oct ’23US$84.29
US$103.00
+22.2%
8.4%US$115.00US$92.00US$62.055
Sep ’23US$89.82
US$105.60
+17.6%
6.8%US$115.00US$95.00US$64.605
Aug ’23US$90.77
US$105.60
+16.3%
6.8%US$115.00US$95.00US$69.485
Jul ’23US$87.13
US$108.60
+24.6%
8.7%US$125.00US$100.00US$60.905
Jun ’23US$91.46
US$110.00
+20.3%
8.5%US$125.00US$100.00US$58.765
May ’23US$90.18
US$110.00
+22.0%
8.5%US$125.00US$100.00US$60.275

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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