Analysts Are Updating Their Mercedes-Benz Group AG (ETR:MBG) Estimates After Its Full-Year Results

As you might know, Mercedes-Benz Group AG (ETR:MBG) recently reported its full-year numbers. Mercedes-Benz Group reported €146b in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of €10.19 beat expectations, being 3.1% higher than what the analysts expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

View our latest analysis for Mercedes-Benz Group

Following last week's earnings report, Mercedes-Benz Group's 19 analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be €143.4b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to drop 19% to €8.61 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €143.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of €9.28 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at €68.55, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Mercedes-Benz Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €106 and the most bearish at €47.00 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Mercedes-Benz Group's past performance and to peers in the same industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 1.5% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 0.9% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 2.4% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Mercedes-Benz Group is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €68.55, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Mercedes-Benz Group. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Mercedes-Benz Group analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Mercedes-Benz Group (of which 1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.