Earnings Update: China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited (SHSE:600115) Just Reported Its Annual Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Forecasts

As you might know, China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited (SHSE:600115) last week released its latest full-year, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. Revenues missed expectations somewhat, coming in at CN¥132b, but statutory earnings fell catastrophically short, with a loss of CN¥0.19 some 83% larger than what the analysts had predicted. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Following the latest results, China Eastern Airlines' seven analysts are now forecasting revenues of CN¥144.3b in 2025. This would be a notable 9.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with China Eastern Airlines forecast to report a statutory profit of CN¥0.17 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥147.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.17 in 2025. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a minor downgrade to earnings per share estimates.

View our latest analysis for China Eastern Airlines

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the CN¥4.29 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values China Eastern Airlines at CN¥5.20 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CN¥3.20. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of China Eastern Airlines'historical trends, as the 9.2% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 9.3% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 6.4% per year. So it's pretty clear that China Eastern Airlines is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. They also downgraded China Eastern Airlines' revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CN¥4.29, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on China Eastern Airlines. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple China Eastern Airlines analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also view our analysis of China Eastern Airlines' balance sheet, and whether we think China Eastern Airlines is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.