Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of Zhuhai Comleader Information Science & Technology Co., Ltd. (SHSE:688175)

Key Insights

• The projected fair value for Zhuhai Comleader Information Science & Technology is CN¥20.29 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
• With CN¥20.36 share price, Zhuhai Comleader Information Science & Technology appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value
• Industry average of 307% suggests Zhuhai Comleader Information Science & Technology's peers are currently trading at a higher premium to fair value

Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Zhuhai Comleader Information Science & Technology Co., Ltd. (SHSE:688175) as an investment opportunity by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

View our latest analysis for Zhuhai Comleader Information Science & Technology

The Method

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions)	CN¥76.1m	CN¥85.9m	CN¥94.4m	CN¥101.7m	CN¥108.2m	CN¥114.0m	CN¥119.2m	CN¥124.1m	CN¥128.8m	CN¥133.3m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Est @ 17.16%	Est @ 12.89%	Est @ 9.91%	Est @ 7.82%	Est @ 6.35%	Est @ 5.33%	Est @ 4.61%	Est @ 4.11%	Est @ 3.76%	Est @ 3.51%
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 8.2%	CN¥70.3	CN¥73.4	CN¥74.5	CN¥74.3	CN¥73.0	CN¥71.1	CN¥68.7	CN¥66.1	CN¥63.4	CN¥60.7

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥695m

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.9%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 8.2%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₃ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥133m× (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (8.2%– 2.9%) = CN¥2.6b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= CN¥2.6b÷ ( 1 + 8.2%)¹⁰= CN¥1.2b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is CN¥1.9b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of CN¥20.4, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

Important Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Zhuhai Comleader Information Science & Technology as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.932. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Moving On:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Zhuhai Comleader Information Science & Technology, we've compiled three fundamental factors you should further research:

1. Risks: Be aware that Zhuhai Comleader Information Science & Technology is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...
2. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
3. Other Environmentally-Friendly Companies: Concerned about the environment and think consumers will buy eco-friendly products more and more? Browse through our interactive list of companies that are thinking about a greener future to discover some stocks you may not have thought of!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SHSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.