It's A Story Of Risk Vs Reward With Loncin Motor Co., Ltd. (SHSE:603766)

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 22.9x Loncin Motor Co., Ltd. (SHSE:603766) may be sending bullish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in China have P/E ratios greater than 30x and even P/E's higher than 58x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the reduced P/E.

Loncin Motor certainly has been doing a good job lately as its earnings growth has been positive while most other companies have been seeing their earnings go backwards. One possibility is that the P/E is low because investors think the company's earnings are going to fall away like everyone else's soon. If not, then existing shareholders have reason to be quite optimistic about the future direction of the share price.

View our latest analysis for Loncin Motor

Keen to find out how analysts think Loncin Motor's future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

How Is Loncin Motor's Growth Trending?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, Loncin Motor would need to produce sluggish growth that's trailing the market.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew earnings per share by an impressive 41% last year. Although, its longer-term performance hasn't been as strong with three-year EPS growth being relatively non-existent overall. Therefore, it's fair to say that earnings growth has been inconsistent recently for the company.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the only analyst covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 27% each year over the next three years. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to only expand by 19% each year, which is noticeably less attractive.

With this information, we find it odd that Loncin Motor is trading at a P/E lower than the market. Apparently some shareholders are doubtful of the forecasts and have been accepting significantly lower selling prices.

The Final Word

We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

We've established that Loncin Motor currently trades on a much lower than expected P/E since its forecast growth is higher than the wider market. There could be some major unobserved threats to earnings preventing the P/E ratio from matching the positive outlook. It appears many are indeed anticipating earnings instability, because these conditions should normally provide a boost to the share price.

Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Loncin Motor that you should be aware of.

Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than Loncin Motor. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.