EU Antitrust Probe Into Online Watch Pricing Could Be A Game Changer For Swatch Group (SWX:UHR)

• Italian competition authorities have opened an antitrust investigation into Swatch Group and Japan’s Citizen Watch over allegedly imposing online retail prices and retaliating against distributors who offered discounts, potentially breaching European Union rules.
• The probe highlights growing regulatory attention on how global watchmakers manage online distribution and pricing power across their authorized retail networks.
• We will now examine how this antitrust scrutiny of Swatch Group’s pricing practices could influence its investment narrative and perceived regulatory risk.

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What Is Swatch Group's Investment Narrative?

For Swatch, you really have to believe in the long-term appeal of its brands and global distribution, despite a tough patch in the numbers. Sales and profit have weakened sharply in H1 2025, and the share price has lagged broader Swiss equities over three and five years, even as analysts still see meaningful earnings recovery ahead. Near term, the key catalysts remain any sign of margin repair and better cash coverage of the dividend, alongside the ongoing governance debate after the failed activist push to add Steven Wood to the board. The new Italian antitrust probe adds an extra layer of regulatory risk, but based on the recent, fairly muted share price reaction, markets do not appear to be treating it as a game changer for the investment case just yet.

However, tighter scrutiny of pricing and online distribution could matter more than it first appears. Swatch Group's share price has been on the slide but might be dropping deeper into value territory. Find out whether it's a bargain at this price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Eight fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span about CHF 65 to CHF 200, underscoring how differently investors see Swatch’s upside. Set that against pressure on margins, thin profit and fresh antitrust scrutiny, and you can see why it pays to weigh several viewpoints before forming your own view on the company’s prospects.

Explore 8 other fair value estimates on Swatch Group - why the stock might be worth as much as 23% more than the current price!

Build Your Own Swatch Group Narrative

Disagree with this assessment? Create your own narrative in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Swatch Group research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Swatch Group research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Swatch Group's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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