Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of Intouch Insight Ltd. (CVE:INX)

Key Insights

• Intouch Insight's estimated fair value is CA$0.66 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
• With CA$0.55 share price, Intouch Insight appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value

How far off is Intouch Insight Ltd. (CVE:INX) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

View our latest analysis for Intouch Insight

The Model

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034
Levered FCF (CA$, Millions)	CA$1.16m	CA$1.06m	CA$997.7k	CA$965.6k	CA$950.0k	CA$945.1k	CA$947.6k	CA$955.3k	CA$966.7k	CA$980.7k
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Est @ -13.34%	Est @ -8.72%	Est @ -5.48%	Est @ -3.21%	Est @ -1.62%	Est @ -0.51%	Est @ 0.27%	Est @ 0.81%	Est @ 1.19%	Est @ 1.46%
Present Value (CA$, Millions) Discounted @ 7.1%	CA$1.1	CA$0.9	CA$0.8	CA$0.7	CA$0.7	CA$0.6	CA$0.6	CA$0.6	CA$0.5	CA$0.5

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CA$7.0m

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.1%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.1%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₄ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CA$981k× (1 + 2.1%) ÷ (7.1%– 2.1%) = CA$20m

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= CA$20m÷ ( 1 + 7.1%)¹⁰= CA$9.9m

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CA$17m. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of CA$0.6, the company appears about fair value at a 17% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

Important Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Intouch Insight as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.1%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.101. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Moving On:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Intouch Insight, there are three essential factors you should further research:

1. Risks: For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Intouch Insight (1 is a bit unpleasant) you should be aware of.
2. Management:Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market's sentiment for INX's future outlook? Check out our management and board analysis with insights on CEO compensation and governance factors.
3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the TSXV every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com