FirstService Corporation Just Missed EPS By 24%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

The first-quarter results for FirstService Corporation (TSE:FSV) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. Revenue of US$1.2b surpassed estimates by 3.0%, although statutory earnings per share missed badly, coming in 24% below expectations at US$0.14 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for FirstService

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from FirstService's ten analysts is for revenues of US$4.98b in 2024. This reflects a notable 11% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 33% to US$2.68. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$4.93b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.58 in 2024. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

The consensus price target was unchanged at CA$236, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of FirstService'shistorical trends, as the 15% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 is roughly in line with the 15% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 1.4% annually. So it's pretty clear that FirstService is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around FirstService's earnings potential next year. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for FirstService going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You still need to take note of risks, for example - FirstService has 3 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.