A Look at Ivanhoe Mines (TSX:IVN) Valuation After New 2026–2027 Copper Production Guidance

Ivanhoe Mines (TSX:IVN) just laid out fresh production guidance that ramps up copper output at its flagship Kamoa Kakula complex through 2027, a material signal for how its growth story could translate into future cash flow.

See our latest analysis for Ivanhoe Mines.

Despite the upbeat guidance, Ivanhoe Mines’ share price, now at CA$13.71, still shows a negative year to date share price return. Its five year total shareholder return remains firmly positive, suggesting long term momentum is intact even as shorter term sentiment recalibrates.

If this kind of growth narrative has your attention, it is also worth scanning fast growing stocks with high insider ownership to uncover other under the radar names with both strong fundamentals and aligned insiders.

With production ramping up and the share price still lagging recent highs, analysts see upside from here. The key question is whether Ivanhoe Mines is genuinely undervalued today or already reflecting the market’s expectations for future copper growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 23.6% Undervalued

Compared to Ivanhoe Mines’ last close at CA$13.71, the most followed narrative places fair value meaningfully higher, implying the market is underestimating its future copper engine.

Completion and ramp up of the Kamoa Kakula smelter (targeted for September) and the associated drop in logistics costs are expected to meaningfully reduce unit costs, directly boosting future operating margins and cash flow.

Ongoing capacity expansions at Kamoa Kakula (Phases 1 to 3) and de bottlenecking at Kipushi, alongside operational recovery from the recent seismic event, are projected to drive substantial increases in copper and zinc output, supporting strong top line revenue growth in the next 12 to 24 months as production returns to full scale.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see how aggressive production growth, shifting margins and a richer copper price deck combine into that valuation call? The full narrative unpacks the exact revenue, earnings and multiple assumptions behind this upside view.

Result: Fair Value of $17.95 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent seismic or operational setbacks at Kamoa Kakula, along with potential cost overruns on expansion projects, could quickly erode today’s optimistic valuation assumptions.

Find out about the key risks to this Ivanhoe Mines narrative.

Another Way to Look at Value

While the narrative suggests Ivanhoe Mines is 23.6% undervalued, a simple earnings ratio check tells a different story. At 46.2 times earnings, versus a fair ratio of 27.3 times and an industry average of 21.4 times, the stock screens as expensive, raising the risk that any execution stumble hits the share price hard. Which signal do you trust more: the growth story or the current multiple?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Ivanhoe Mines Narrative

If you want to stress test these assumptions or rely on your own homework instead, you can build a custom narrative in minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Ivanhoe Mines research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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