Earnings Miss: Calibre Mining Corp. Missed EPS By 12% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

Calibre Mining Corp. (TSE:CXB) last week reported its latest full-year results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. It was not a great result overall. While revenues of US$562m were in line with analyst predictions, earnings were less than expected, missing statutory estimates by 12% to hit US$0.18 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Calibre Mining after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Calibre Mining

Following last week's earnings report, Calibre Mining's three analysts are forecasting 2024 revenues to be US$564.6m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to jump 31% to US$0.16. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$558.9m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.15 in 2024. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Calibre Mining's earnings potential following these results.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of CA$2.50, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Calibre Mining, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CA$3.25 and the most bearish at CA$2.00 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Calibre Mining's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 0.5% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 44% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 12% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Calibre Mining.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Calibre Mining following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CA$2.50, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Calibre Mining. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Calibre Mining going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Calibre Mining .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.