Saturn Oil & Gas' (CVE:SOIL) Robust Earnings Are Not All Good News For Shareholders

Even though Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. (CVE:SOIL) posted strong earnings recently, the stock hasn't reacted in a large way. We think that investors might be worried about the foundations the earnings are built on.

Check out the opportunities and risks within the CA Oil and Gas industry.

A Closer Look At Saturn Oil & Gas' Earnings

One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.

That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".

Saturn Oil & Gas has an accrual ratio of 1.44 for the year to September 2022. As a general rule, that bodes poorly for future profitability. To wit, the company did not generate one whit of free cashflow in that time. Over the last year it actually had negative free cash flow of CA$251m, in contrast to the aforementioned profit of CA$80.9m. Coming off the back of negative free cash flow last year, we imagine some shareholders might wonder if its cash burn of CA$251m, this year, indicates high risk. Notably, the company has issued new shares, thus diluting existing shareholders and reducing their share of future earnings.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

To understand the value of a company's earnings growth, it is imperative to consider any dilution of shareholders' interests. As it happens, Saturn Oil & Gas issued 138% more new shares over the last year. That means its earnings are split among a greater number of shares. To talk about net income, without noticing earnings per share, is to be distracted by the big numbers while ignoring the smaller numbers that talk to per share value. Check out Saturn Oil & Gas' historical EPS growth by clicking on this link.

How Is Dilution Impacting Saturn Oil & Gas' Earnings Per Share (EPS)?

As it happens, we don't know how much the company made or lost three years ago, because we don't have the data. Zooming in to the last year, we still can't talk about growth rates coherently, since it made a loss last year. What we do know is that while it's great to see a profit over the last twelve months, that profit would have been better, on a per share basis, if the company hadn't needed to issue shares. So you can see that the dilution has had a fairly significant impact on shareholders.

If Saturn Oil & Gas' EPS can grow over time then that drastically improves the chances of the share price moving in the same direction. However, if its profit increases while its earnings per share stay flat (or even fall) then shareholders might not see much benefit. For that reason, you could say that EPS is more important that net income in the long run, assuming the goal is to assess whether a company's share price might grow.

Our Take On Saturn Oil & Gas' Profit Performance

In conclusion, Saturn Oil & Gas has weak cashflow relative to earnings, which indicates lower quality earnings, and the dilution means that shareholders now own a smaller proportion of the company (assuming they maintained the same number of shares). For all the reasons mentioned above, we think that, at a glance, Saturn Oil & Gas' statutory profits could be considered to be low quality, because they are likely to give investors an overly positive impression of the company. So if you'd like to dive deeper into this stock, it's crucial to consider any risks it's facing. For example, we've found that Saturn Oil & Gas has 3 warning signs (2 are a bit concerning!) that deserve your attention before going any further with your analysis.

In this article we've looked at a number of factors that can impair the utility of profit numbers, and we've come away cautious. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.