Market Still Lacking Some Conviction On MEG Energy Corp. (TSE:MEG)

There wouldn't be many who think MEG Energy Corp.'s (TSE:MEG) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 12.8x is worth a mention when the median P/E in Canada is similar at about 14x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/E ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

MEG Energy hasn't been tracking well recently as its declining earnings compare poorly to other companies, which have seen some growth on average. It might be that many expect the dour earnings performance to strengthen positively, which has kept the P/E from falling. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a relatively elevated price for a company with this sort of growth profile.

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What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/E?

MEG Energy's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the market.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 15%. Still, the latest three year period has seen an excellent 386% overall rise in EPS, in spite of its unsatisfying short-term performance. So we can start by confirming that the company has generally done a very good job of growing earnings over that time, even though it had some hiccups along the way.

Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 11% per annum as estimated by the three analysts watching the company. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to only expand by 8.4% each year, which is noticeably less attractive.

In light of this, it's curious that MEG Energy's P/E sits in line with the majority of other companies. It may be that most investors aren't convinced the company can achieve future growth expectations.

The Key Takeaway

While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.

We've established that MEG Energy currently trades on a lower than expected P/E since its forecast growth is higher than the wider market. When we see a strong earnings outlook with faster-than-market growth, we assume potential risks are what might be placing pressure on the P/E ratio. It appears some are indeed anticipating earnings instability, because these conditions should normally provide a boost to the share price.

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for MEG Energy that you need to take into consideration.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on MEG Energy, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.