MEG Energy Corp.

TSX:MEG Stock Report

Market Cap: CA$6.0b

MEG Energy Valuation

Is MEG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MEG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MEG (CA$22.44) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CA$57.17)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MEG is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MEG?

Key metric: As MEG is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for MEG. This is calculated by dividing MEG's market cap by their current earnings.
What is MEG's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio11.7x
EarningsCA$504.00m
Market CapCA$5.95b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MEG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MEG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average13.7x
WCP Whitecap Resources
6.3x-17.0%CA$5.6b
SCR Strathcona Resources
7.5x-9.6%CA$5.9b
PSK PrairieSky Royalty
29.1x2.1%CA$6.6b
POU Paramount Resources
11.9x-19.1%CA$4.3b
MEG MEG Energy
11.7x-0.5%CA$6.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MEG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.7x) compared to the peer average (13.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MEG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the CA Oil and Gas Industry?

7 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
HAM Highwood Asset Management
1.1x-41.1%US$59.17m
ALPS.U Alpine Summit Energy Partners
1xn/aUS$24.02m
KUB.H Carcetti Capital
0.7xn/aUS$5.82m
GCOM Green Shift Commodities
1.2xn/aUS$3.83m
MEG 11.7xIndustry Avg. 10.2xNo. of Companies12PE0612182430+
7 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MEG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.7x) compared to the Canadian Oil and Gas industry average (9.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MEG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MEG PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio11.7x
Fair PE Ratio11.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MEG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MEG forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCA$22.44
CA$32.33
+44.1%
10.6%CA$38.00CA$26.00n/a15
Dec ’25CA$25.20
CA$32.47
+28.8%
10.3%CA$38.00CA$26.00n/a15
Nov ’25CA$25.15
CA$32.90
+30.8%
10.1%CA$38.00CA$26.00n/a15
Oct ’25CA$26.37
CA$33.50
+27.0%
10.3%CA$38.00CA$26.00n/a15
Sep ’25CA$26.84
CA$34.63
+29.0%
8.4%CA$39.00CA$28.00n/a15
Aug ’25CA$27.91
CA$34.77
+24.6%
8.9%CA$40.00CA$28.00n/a15
Jul ’25CA$29.27
CA$34.87
+19.1%
8.9%CA$40.00CA$28.00n/a15
Jun ’25CA$29.59
CA$34.87
+17.8%
9.5%CA$40.00CA$28.00n/a15
May ’25CA$30.20
CA$34.86
+15.4%
9.7%CA$40.00CA$28.00n/a14
Apr ’25CA$31.48
CA$32.29
+2.6%
10.5%CA$37.00CA$26.00n/a14
Mar ’25CA$29.34
CA$31.04
+5.8%
10.2%CA$35.00CA$26.00n/a14
Feb ’25CA$24.47
CA$30.35
+24.0%
9.9%CA$35.00CA$26.00n/a13
Jan ’25CA$23.67
CA$30.50
+28.9%
8.3%CA$36.00CA$27.00n/a13
Dec ’24CA$25.48
CA$30.85
+21.1%
7.8%CA$36.00CA$27.00CA$25.2013
Nov ’24CA$27.38
CA$30.58
+11.7%
7.7%CA$36.00CA$27.00CA$25.1513
Oct ’24CA$26.43
CA$27.77
+5.1%
10.4%CA$33.00CA$23.00CA$26.3713
Sep ’24CA$25.53
CA$26.50
+3.8%
8.7%CA$32.00CA$23.00CA$26.8413
Aug ’24CA$23.82
CA$26.08
+9.5%
9.0%CA$30.00CA$21.50CA$27.9113
Jul ’24CA$21.00
CA$25.58
+21.8%
8.9%CA$29.00CA$21.00CA$29.2713
Jun ’24CA$21.29
CA$25.88
+21.6%
10.2%CA$30.00CA$21.00CA$29.5913
May ’24CA$22.22
CA$26.12
+17.5%
10.8%CA$31.00CA$21.00CA$30.2013
Apr ’24CA$21.71
CA$24.85
+14.4%
9.8%CA$30.00CA$21.00CA$31.4813
Mar ’24CA$21.99
CA$24.31
+10.5%
12.5%CA$30.00CA$19.00CA$29.3413
Feb ’24CA$21.70
CA$23.57
+8.6%
16.0%CA$34.00CA$19.00CA$24.4714
Jan ’24CA$18.85
CA$24.00
+27.3%
15.8%CA$34.00CA$18.00CA$23.6714
Dec ’23CA$19.18
CA$24.14
+25.9%
14.8%CA$34.00CA$19.00CA$25.4814

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/19 23:50
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/19 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

MEG Energy Corp. is covered by 39 analysts. 3 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Patrick O'RourkeATB Capital Markets
Thomas DriscollBarclays
Randy OllenbergerBMO Capital Markets Equity Research